The title suggests that something unexpected has occurred or is happening in the international scene, which was not foreseen or anticipated by the major stakeholders. Perhaps, yes. In my opinion, the solid support that China is giving to Russia in its war on Ukraine was not expected by the Western powers. Therefore, the US-led NATO did not have a strategy to deal with Russia. Despite its fullest support in terms of money, material, moral, and training, NATO is unable to keep Ukraine afloat against Russia. The country is losing territory fast, suffering casualties among its people, and getting its critical infrastructure destroyed systematically.
I maintain that this was an unnecessary war, and it should have been stopped a long time ago. But NATO has decided that Ukraine could be sacrificed to keep Russia embroiled in the battle to deplete its resources. NATO finds Ukrainian President Zelensky the right person to pursue their agenda. Whereas Zelensky, who portrays himself as a symbol of resistance, will undoubtedly flee the country like so many other leaders who risk their nations’ integrity at the behest of world powers and ultimately abandon their posts when defeat is inevitable.
US engagement of over two decades and a considerable time in Iraq has cost the US dearly, not only in terms of cost, but also by missing out on China’s strategy to outgrow it as the only superpower in the world.
Back to Russia-China friendship, cooperation, or collaboration, at such a level, was certainly not envisaged by the US think tanks, academia, and the successive Administrations. Whereas I understand that there are no permanent friends or foes in international relations, but the interests (Lord Palmerston), then this aspect should have been studied from this very perspective.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) have brought Russia and China much closer than anticipated by the Western world. SCO was founded on June 15, 2001, and is essentially an Eurasian Organisation to develop political and economic cooperation among its member states. Its founding members included the People’s Republic of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. However, like any other international or regional organisation, the SCO also opened its doors. South Asian states, India and Pakistan, joined it in June 2017, with a West Asian state, Iran, following in July 2023, and Belarus in July 2024.
Likewise, established in 2009 as BRIC, but South Africa joined in 2011 to complete the acronym, BRICS. In 2023, the BRICS accepted a large number of new entrants, including Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Argentina. Indonesia joined the bloc as a full member on January 6, 2025. BRICS is now informally referred to as BRICS+.
Interestingly, both SCO and BRICS lack a security cooperation agenda or apparatus, focusing instead on political and economic cooperation. Yet, these two organisations have brought Russia and China much closer than anticipated by the West. The US-led NATO did not expect the solid political and moral support that China has extended to Russia. Moreover, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) launched in 20103 also appears to be an out-of-syllabus happening. Therefore, it was not surprising that the entire Western world initially criticised BRI, deeming it too ambitious and unfeasible. However, BRI started to prove its efficacy within a few years of its launch because it was aimed at connecting the world through road, rail, air, and sea. Moreover, the BRI did not differentiate the states based on their political affiliations and resources. The initiative was launched across the board and in all regions simultaneously. In little over a decade, the BRI’s investment volume is reaching nearly USD 2.0 trillion, which is the single most significant investment among all initiatives.
The BRICS is now causing uneasiness to the Western world due to its endeavours to bring an alternate international currency, thus challenging the USD’s monopoly on international trade. The process of de-dollarisation, though slow, has already started. China is making serious efforts to introduce an alternative method of international currency transfer and trade.
In my opinion, all of the above initiatives by China and its bond with Russia were not part of the Western world’s 21st-century plans. Therefore, I insist that the US engagement of over two decades and a considerable time in Iraq has cost the US dearly, not only in terms of cost, but by missing out on China’s strategy to outgrow it as the only superpower in the world. China is making an all-out effort to turn the international system to multilateralism with Russian support, much sooner than anticipated by the West.
There is little doubt that the out-of-syllabus equations are challenging to handle, no matter how strong you are, and perhaps the US-led West is going through a period of extreme tests after over centuries of unchallenged supremacy.
The writer of this article has authored three international books: “Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan” “South Asia Needs Hybrid Peace” and “Understanding Sun Tzu and the Art of Hybrid War.”