For some time, India had relegated Pakistan to a mediocre state, which did not warrant much attention, and instead concentrated more on its preparations to counter China’s rise. India was able to sell the challenge to China due to its proactive diplomacy and the influence of its diaspora. There is little doubt that the Indian diaspora has a highly influential presence worldwide, particularly in the United States and the United Kingdom.
India used the card intelligently and convinced the global leaders that Pakistan did not matter to it anymore. It can challenge China if political and military support is extended to it. The idea of handling China’s rise by India sounded great in the Western Capitals, and they readily extended unconditional political and military support to India.
India felt emboldened and embarked on an ambitious military modernisation plan that included a range of hardware from various suppliers. India acquired state-of-the-art air defence systems, including the S-400 from Russia, the Dassault Rafale fighter aircraft from France, and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), as well as the Heron Mk2 and Harop drones from Israel, among others. From the US, India had already concluded multiple foundational agreements, including the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) and the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA), which marked a significant step in strengthening military cooperation between the two countries, forming a “troika of foundational pacts.” The lengthy negotiations following the foundational agreements culminated in the signing of the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) between India and the United States on October 27, 2020. BECA assured India of real-time intelligence and targeting information.
India is nowhere close to becoming a regional power, and Western Powers will have to review their strategy of preparing India as a counter to China
With so many arms, ammunition, and equipment, India started to claim itself as a regional power, relegated Pakistan to a minor opponent, and began to challenge China’s power in the region. China, on the other hand, disregarded India as a major opponent and eyed a shift in the international system from unipolarity to multipolarity, with the solid support of Russia, another global power that had consolidated its position.
Fast forward to May 2025. India employed an old strategy of stage management. It blamed Pakistan for an unfortunate terror attack on April 22, 2025, at a tourist spot in Pahalgam, located in the Indian-held Jammu and Kashmir. No sooner had the Indian media flashed live images of the victims than India’s government started to threaten Pakistan with dire consequences.
Well, it was nothing new for Pakistan, and it renewed its call for an independent investigation in which it will cooperate fully with the Indian government. Indian actions were also scripted, and as expected, it rejected Pakistan’s condemnation and cooperation in the process of a fair and transparent investigation.
As I said before, it was an old script; therefore, India took exactly two weeks to gather some international support for its right to act militarily against Pakistan and mobilised its forces to initiate a cowardly attack on the night of 6th and 7th May 2025. Once again, India put its air force in front, followed by a barrage of surface-to-surface missiles and drones. India showcased its entire range of acquired inventory, including the French Rafale, Russian SU-30MKI, and Israeli drones. History also repeated itself, and Pakistan’s response was solid and resolute, like always.
The PAF shot down several IAF jets, including multiple Rafael aircraft, and attacked various military locations in the IHK. At the same time, India continued its standoff offensive across the international border, claiming to attack only alleged terror networks. India kept on attacking mosques, madrasas, and civilian locations across the international border, killing innocent people. While PAF ensured that IAF did not get airborne again, Pakistan took this beating on the 8th and 9th of May, before its measured response on the 10th of May. PAF, like always, by the Grace of Allah, inflicted some severe damage to India’s S-400 Air Defence system and other significant counterforce targets.
India, still reeling from the losses to the IAF on the night of 6th and 7th May, was not expecting Pakistan’s response on the 10th May, and therefore immediately rushed to the White House for a ceasefire, perhaps to reevaluate its assessment of Pakistan’s operational preparedness.
Claims and counterclaims are part of the warfare, and it may take a while before the claims of victory by the states are verified by independent sources. However, one thing is quite evident: India is nowhere close to becoming a regional power, and Western Powers will have to review their strategy of preparing India as a counter to China if it cannot tame Pakistan, which it has relegated to a lesser power.
More on this next, In Sha Allah.
The writer of this article has authored three international books: “Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan” “South Asia Needs Hybrid Peace” and “Understanding Sun Tzu and the Art of Hybrid War.”