The October 1 controversial referendum held in the Spanish autonomous region of Catalonia, which deepened conflict between Madrid and the Catalonian nationalist forces, may unleash the process of instability in Europe. After the bloody civil war in Bosnia-Herzegovina during early and mid-1990s, crisis in Catalonia is the most dangerous flashpoint as far as peace and stability in Europe is concerned.
Following the end of General Francis Franco’s dictatorial rule from 1939-1975, Spain moved towards the road to democracy and restored the autonomous status of Catalonia which was revoked during Franco’s repressive rule. From 1977, when the Catalan regional government was restored till 2010, Catalonia located in the north eastern part of Spain with a distinct historical, cultural and lingual characteristics, enjoyed considerable autonomy till the time the constitutional court of Spain curtailed Catalonian autonomous status as laid down in 2006 reforms. As a result of July 2010 decision of the Spanish constitutional court, pro-independence forces in Catalonia gained ground.
The war of words between the Prime Minister of Spain Mariano Rajoy and the Catalan President Carles Puigdement reached its peaked on October 20 when Carles sent a letter to Rajoy threatening that, “if the government continues to prevent dialogue and maintains the repression, the Parliament of Catalonia could go ahead, if it deems it opportune, and vote for formal declaration of independence.” In the meantime, the Spanish government continues to discuss options in order to prevent secession of Catalonia by invoking article 155 of Spanish constitution so as to dissolve the parliament of Catalonia and establish direct control of Madrid in its volatile province. Furthermore, it is also contemplating to hold fresh elections in Catalonia so as to marginalise Carles’s pro-independence Catalan European Democratic Party. The Spanish Prime Minister is confident that he will have enough support along with the opposition parties in the Senate to deal with the secessionist drive led by Catalan President.
The referendum of October 1, which was banned by the Spanish constitutional court. went ahead with 43 percent of voters participating and 90 percent supporting independence of Catalonia from Spain. Pro-united Spanish parties and groups argue that majority of Catalonians are not in favour of independence as only 43 percent voters in Catalonia voted in October 1 referendum. Allegations of irregularities in referendum were also pointed out by those who boycotted and argued that President Carles Puigdement was pursuing a dangerous collision course which may have far reaching implications.
What is the basis of Catalonia’s drive for independence? How far the use of force by Spanish police to prevent the holding of October 1 referendum was counter-productive and escalated tension between Madrid and Catalonian nationalists? How the crisis in Catalonia will have its implications on European Union and stability in Europe? These are the questions which are raised in the recent past as far as the dangerous situation in Spain is concerned.
There exists an historical basis of Catalonian identity as a separate ethnic, lingual and cultural group in Spain. Several Spanish regimes tried to suppress Catalonian drive for independence till the time democracy was restored in Spain after the death of the longest surviving dictator General Francis Franco. Catalonia was granted autonomy with its regional parliament and government in 1977 but such an autonomy which was further strengthened in 2006 was questioned by the Spanish constitutional court in 2010 which sparked pro-independence sentiments among the Catalonians. Furthermore, Catalonia is the richest region of Spain with 7.5 million population; GDP of 223.6 billion Euros and per capita income of around 30,000 Euros. Economic prosperity and undermining the identity of Catalonian population by Madrid triggered independence drive by nationalists in Spain’s richest region. The loss of Catalonia will have enormous economic implications for Spain as it is the region’s industrial and economic hub which is termed as a plus point for those aspiring for the independence of Catalonia. They argue, like which was done by the Silks in the Indian Punjab during Khalistan Movement of 1980s, that they can survive as an independent state because of their vibrant economy.
There are moments in the history of national liberation movements when a singular event may trigger the process of independence. Had the use of force against those voting in a referendum not taken place in Catalonia on October 1, things wouldn’t have deteriorated to such an extent that Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and his pro-unity fellows are compelled to preserve the integrity of their country by invoking article 155 so as to prevent the secession Catalonia from his country. Likewise, it is a historical fact that the decision to launch military operation against Bengali nationalists led by Awami League, the majority party of December 1970 general elections, was counter productive which forced them to declare Unilateral Declaration of Independence (UDI) on March 26, 1971. Like Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, the leader of Awami League who refrained from declaring UDI in a massive public meeting held in race course ground Dhaka on March 9, 1971, Catalonian President Carles Puigdement postponed declaring UDI when 90 percent voters voted for independence on October 1, elections but has threatened to do so if Madrid resorts to impose its rule over Catalonia.
It is in this scenario that the role of European Union becomes crucial and critical because of two main reasons. First, civil war in Catalonia will hurt the interests of Europe inasmuch as the interests of Spain. The spill over and domino effect of the secession of Catalonia from Spain is not difficult to gauge because taking inspiration and example from Catalonia, other ethnic groups in Europe will take advantage and try to accelerate their own ambitions for an independence status. Scotland is a case in point where pro-independence forces lost by a small margin in the last referendum. Second, the secession of Catalonia will also have negative economic fallout on European Union and may also weaken Euro. It is in this perspective that Brussels had taken a firm stance on Catalonia and it not supportive to pro-independence forces. Furthermore, European Union needs to play a decisive role by mediating in Spain-Catalonian conflict so that the issue is amicably resolved and Europe is saved from another cycle of armed conflict.
Pro-independence groups in Catalonia face a double jeopardy. First, the lack of international support as neither the European Union nor any other organisation or state is rendering any support to President Carles Puigdement’s agenda of emancipation from Spain. Second, even in Catalonia, a strong minority is against independence of their region from Spain as they believe that their stakes are more intact and beneficial while staying with Spain rather than seeking separation from Madrid. And, one cannot ignore the possibility of Catalan European Democratic Party and its pro-independence allies losing any future elections if arranged by the Spanish government. There are more minuses than pluses as far as the possibility of an independent Catalonian state is concerned. One is also not certain to what extent such a state will be viable and can survive amidst hostility with Spain and lack of space in Europe and the world.
The writer is Meritorious Professor of International Relations, University of Karachi. He can be contacted at [email protected]
Published in Daily Times, October 26th 2017.