This is the second time the fickle-minded Indian leader, Narendra Modi has pushed the two nuclear neighbors to the edge of death and destruction for electoral advantage or his self-projection as a bulwark against Pakistan. In 2019, he was facing an assertive Congress in the general elections. The Pulwama suicidal attack was a tragic incident which saw some 40 soldiers killed. He used it as an excuse to blame Pakistan for cross-border terrorism without producing a shred of evidence, and triggered the limited war between the two countries with a retaliatory attack on Balakot by the Indian Air Force. Pakistan retaliated. During this dogfight, India lost a couple of planes and one of his pilots – Abhinandan was captured alive.
What India gained were some extra parliamentary constituencies owing to the hysteria and hatred fanned against Pakistan. But its losses were enormous. The myth of its military superiority and political hegemony masquerading as a strong countervail to China in the region was broken. Narendra Modi, going on a spree of defence purchases, started amassing sophisticated and lethal arms including 37 Rafale fighter jets from France, hundreds of drones from Israel, Brahmos missiles and the S-400 missile defence system from Russia and diversifying its arsenal stockpiles. It used the perceived ‘Chinese security threats’ as an alibi terming its military and strategic purchases and extraordinary increase in its Defence budget as China-specific. The gullible US leaders with their China-xenophobic mind, believed in the dubious, deceptive and false claims of the Indian leadership.
The purchase of the French Rafale Jets, and the Russian surface to air missiles particularly the S-400 imparted a fallacious sense of defence impregnability and air superiority to the Indian military and civilian leadership reviving their aspirations for Hindu nationalist and regional hegemonic dominance. They never paused to assess the war worthiness of their adversary across the border. Pakistan, notwithstanding its political and economic difficulties, was never oblivious to the evil designs of India or its narrow-minded, visionless and extra Hindu nationalist leadership obsessed with RSS ideology.
It is now obvious to the strategic planners that this hollow wall would not sustain any small joint push from Pakistan and China.
Indian leadership used the terrorist attacks on tourists in the resort place of Pahalgam deep inside the occupied Jammu and Kashmir as an excuse and, unexpectedly, announced provocative, escalatory and punitive measures including the closure of their land, air and marine borders for any movement and air traffic, cancelled visa facilities to Pakistanis allowing them a short time to leave India, unilaterally reduced the strength of the Pakistani Mission in New Delhi, weaponized water by suspending the Indus Water Treaty against all International laws, legal norms and conventions, threatened to divert the waters of Indus, Jhelum and Chenab, put their armed forces on red alert for attack on Pakistan in retaliation of the killing of 26 tourists. These provocations pushed the two countries to a hair trigger standoff with all the possibility of it spiraling into a nuclear war.
The Pakistani leadership and media displayed composure and cool-headedness in response to the provocative and jingoistic shrieks from across the border. Pakistani leaders held their nerves even when India fired missiles into seven places in Pakistan and Kashmir on 7 May destroying a mosque and causing some casualties. The next day, India dispatched hundreds of drones (over 500 drowned) along the international border from Sialkot to Hyderabad which were neutralized and drowned. Still Pakistan was showing strategic patience even in the face of domestic pressure and criticism.
This was adding to the haughtiness of the adversary prompting it for some missile attacks on some of our military assets in Rawalpindi, Chakwal and Shorkot. Though the damage caused was insignificant, our patience had run out and time to teach a lesson to the enemy had come. Although the risk of escalation was almost assured and daunting; the danger of war spinning out of control remained unsettling with the economic instability and political disharmony within the country holding our hands back, the urge for restoration of strategic equilibrium between the two countries was stronger than all concerns and apprehensions.
Pakistan chose early Saturday morning to retaliate flying its Eagles including JF-17 and J-10 C into the Indian skies to respond to the war mongering leadership of India. The Jets hit their targets successfully and returned safely to their bases causing immense strategic losses to India including the destruction of the S-400 missile defence system in Adampur, drowning of another Rafale Jet and capturing of its female pilot alive. As confirmed by the world media, India lost five planes including two Rafale Jets. This earned India heavy criticism from the world strategic leaders. According to CNN, the Indian leaders, after their Air Force was beaten squarely, urged the US leadership at the highest level to intervene for an immediate ceasefire.
So, the US Vice President, JD Vance who had earlier termed the military tension between India and Pakistan as ‘none of their business’ and their Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, all of sudden, sprang into active engagement with Pakistani leaders to agree to ceasefire. Their sudden plunge into action was least motivated by their affection for South Asia, rather it owed a great deal to their fear of further strategic degradation of India at the hands of Pakistan. Hence, this knee jerk mediation.
After the ceasefire, the Indian leaders should sit back and assess their gains and losses. Essentially, the scale of their losses would be much heavier. Pragmatically speaking, they would have nothing to show as a gain from the conflict. They were humiliated, subdued and forced to seek pause in the conflict. Again, their military superiority and defence impregnability lay shattered. Their arrogance as regional hegemons or India’s emerging image as a mini superpower counterweighing to China has been shredded into smithereens.
It is now obvious to the strategic planners that this hollow wall would not sustain any small joint push from Pakistan and China. India would need years to regain its credibility as a regional power. It would be better advised to hold talks on the core dispute of Kashmir and all other issues.
The author was a member of the Foreign Service of Pakistan and he has authored two books.