Nawaz Sharif’s insecurity to trust anyone outside his family to protect its political legacy and massive assets could seriously backfire in the present charged environment.
For the moment, his party is in a state of shock and thus unable quickly to think about the future course. So everyone is standing behind him and watching how the process unleashed by the Supreme Court is followed up.
A demonstration of this shaken loyalty was seen even inside the parliament on Tuesday when new PM Shahid Khaqan Abbasi was elected. Not just portraits of Nawaz were carried, the new PM could not rise to the occasion, inspire national confidence by calling for the rule of law, strong institutions and unity.
Instead he delivered a speech normally delivered by small-time partisan leaders, a speech crafted only for the ears of his deposed leader. But this loyalty could fade with time. The pace of cases referred by the SC will determine who in the family comes under the axe first. NAB has already opened cases against Nawaz and an active JIT member has already been named as NAB Rawalpindi official to keep things on track and at speed. This may be the first sign.
Despite his election, though with a reduced majority, and a ‘thank you Nawaz’ speech in the House, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi’s first few days will determine whether he remains the PM for six weeks or until the next elections or even beyond.
He will be under severe pressure both from Sharifs and the powers-that-be because this will decide if he can be trusted or Shahbaz Sharif has to be moved in in this game of musical chairs.
Walking this tight rope, Abbasi’s first test will be the formation of the cabinet and that where he fits in Ishaq Dar and Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan. If all the tainted and under-threat ousted ministers are back, Nisar may hold his decision until the next polls and a permanent position. His body language inside the House on Tuesday said more than his obvious silence.
Dar may be snubbed as he faces serious charges which came from the apex court. He was present rather sadly in the galleries, not showing any sign of hope.
The critical political decision for Nawaz, and Shahbaz, would be whether to quit Punjab and come to the Centre, obviously for a few months.
By leaving and destabilising a province where he has kept, so far, a tight grip and a compliant bureaucracy, Shahbaz could risk a lot.
The issue of keeping power within the family will still not be resolved as the question then will arise whether a Shahbaz family member or a Nawaz nominee should run Punjab. The fire-fighting in the Centre may also be needed in the province.
This sensitive question may widen many fissures inside the family and the Punjab PML-N where small groups thrive in large numbers and Shahbaz has been successful in keeping the flock together. Not so when he leaves the scene.
More important will be the decision of the deep State whether the Sharif family would be allowed to run the country via a remote control in the hands of Nawaz Sharif sitting in Raiwind or Murree.
When NAB opens cases against Ishaq Dar, Shahbaz Sharif and cronies like Saeed Ahmed of the National Bank and SECP’s Hijazi, the cookie will begin to crumble.
The new PM may also face fierce pressure as loud calls for the LNG deals that he negotiated have already started to be heard and even the SC and Election Commission have been moved by some ‘interested petitioners’.
Hijazi has already opened the doors of Adiyala Jail by becoming the first top Nawaz official to enter it as a prisoner. NBP’s Saeed Ahmed is close to breaking down and spilling the beans, in return for amnesty. That would be disastrous for the Sharif family’s hold on politics.
With Sharif family speeding towards its logical end, if the superior courts also punish PTI leader Imran Khan, if for nothing else but to create the perception of balancing the scales, then a ruthless round of across-the-board clean-up will become impossible to avoid.
Top PPP guys including Dr Asim Hussain, Sharjeel Memon, Uzair Baloch and other Mamas and Kakas, etc, are already under the belt.
Important media houses may also have to be included to give the salad bowl a greener and attractive look.
One simple ordinance, a new law or an SC ruling, asking everyone in the country to submit lists of assets, at home and abroad, valued at over Rs 50 million or even Rs100 million, could provide the justification for what would be seen as a truly across-the-board operation clean-up.
Those who may justify their assets could stay at peace. Those who mis-declare could face JITs and whatever comes as a consequence. Those found with billions unearned or unjustified could face the law. Special attention may be paid to those holding public offices.
Foreign governments would, in such a scenario, happily cooperate under the Mutual Legal Assistance laws. Men and women who run away from the country could be called or repatriated.
This is just a clean-up blueprint for what can be done, if there is a will and determination, collectively among the powerful organs of the State.
But if this current round of accountability stops with the Sharifs or Imran Khan, a bitter and fierce political blowback would not be far away, destabilizing the country.
Crucial and critical, well-considered decisions are, therefore, in order and now.
Published in Daily Times, August 2nd , 2017.