While the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party boasted loudly about steering the country toward economic success, a closer look at the economic indicators between FY 2021-22 and FY 2023-24 paints a different picture. Despite PTI’s claims of progress and reform, the reality reveals a discrepancy between their promises and actual outcomes.
Analyzing key metrics such as Export and Import figures, Trade, Current Account, and Fiscal Deficits, Foreign Exchange Reserves, FBR Tax collections, Roshan Digital Account inflows, Inflation Rates, Stock Market Performance, and Pharmaceutical and Agricultural Sectors’ Growth: shows that PTI’s economic achievements have been merely superficial. This disparity highlights that the perceived economic success under PTI’s leadership has been more about presentation and less about substantive, long-term advancements.
In FY 2021-22, Exports totalled $26.8 billion, whereas FY 2023-24 saw a notable increase to $30.64 billion. This growth was significantly supported by a boom in the agricultural sector, which played a crucial role in boosting the country’s export figures.
In FY 2021-22, IT Exports were $1.9 billion, and they significantly increased to $3.223 billion by FY 2023-24. This growth indicates a diversification and strengthening of the economy, with the IT sector playing a crucial role.
PTI’s tenure did not translate into the significant economic growth and stability they proclaimed.
In FY 2021-22, Imports totalled $59.8 billion, whereas FY 2023-24 witnessed a significant drop to $54.73 billion. This substantial decline highlights a notable shift in the country’s trade dynamics.
In FY 2021-22, Pakistan’s Trade Deficit stood at $48.259 billion, indicating a significant imbalance between the value of imports and exports. By FY 2023-24, the trade deficit had decreased to $21.73 billion. The positive shift in trade dynamics contributed to narrowing the trade deficit, reflecting a healthier balance of trade.
The Current Account Deficit, a significant concern in FY 2021-22, stood at $17.4 billion. By FY 2023-24, this deficit had reduced drastically to $0.2 billion, indicating better management of trade balances and external financial obligations.
In FY 2021-22, the Fiscal Deficit was 6.3 percent of GDP, but it improved significantly, decreasing to 4.5 percent of GDP during FY 2024. This reduction was achieved through enhanced revenue collection and more controlled public spending.
In FY 2021-22, Foreign Exchange Reserves stood at $9.19 billion and increased substantially to $14.7 billion by FY 2023-24. This growth included $9.42 billion held by the State Bank of Pakistan and $5.27 billion by commercial banks. The improvement in reserves, reflecting enhanced financial stability,
In FY 2021-22, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) reported tax collections of Rs 5,349 billion, which increased significantly to Rs 9.306 trillion by FY 2023-24. This growth was facilitated by improved tax administration and enforcement of tax policies.
In FY 2021-22, Roshan Digital Account (RDA) inflows totalled $4.606 billion, and they surged to over $8.055 billion by FY 2023-24. This significant increase reflects heightened confidence from the Pakistani diaspora in the country’s financial system.
Inflation, a major challenge in FY 2021-22 with a rate of 19.87 percent, saw a significant reduction to 11.8 percent by FY 2023-24. This decrease points to improved economic policies and better supply chain management, alleviating severe economic pressures and rising consumer costs.
In FY 2021-22, the benchmark KSE-100 index experienced a decline from 47,356 points to 44,929 points. However, by FY 2023-24, the index surged to a new peak of 80,672 points. The index gained 106 points from the previous day’s closing of 80,566 points, which had been the record high. This substantial increase reflects significantly improved investor confidence and a more stable economic environment, underscoring the resilience and potential of the Pakistan Stock Exchange.
In FY 2021-22, the Pharmaceutical Sector’s Growth stood at 14.3 percent, but it increased to 23.2 percent by FY 2023-24. Innovations in drug development and rising export demand were key drivers of this expansion.
The Agriculture Sector growth rate was 4.4 percent in FY 2021-22, while it showed 6.4 percent growth in FY 2023-24, driven by improved crop yields and advancements in agricultural production.
Wheat Production significantly rose from 26.4 million tonnes in FY 2021-22 to 31.4 million tonnes in FY 2023-24, attributed to better farming techniques and favourable weather conditions.
Cotton Production surged significantly from 8.329 million bales in FY 2021-22 to 10.2 million bales in FY 2023-24, thanks to enhanced seed quality and effective pest management practices.
Rice Production reached a record high, increasing from 8.9 million tonnes in FY 2021-22 to 9.9 million tonnes in FY 2023-24. Improved irrigation methods and high this achievement.
Maize Production climbed from 9.5 million tonnes in FY 2021-22 to 9.8 million tonnes in FY 2023-24, driven by adopting hybrid seeds and advanced agricultural techniques.
In FY 2021-22, the savings-to-GDP ratio stood at 11.1 percent, and it rose to 13 percent by FY 2023-24. The higher ratio indicates that a larger portion of the country’s economic output is being saved and invested, which can contribute to sustainable economic growth and stability.
The analysis of economic indicators between FY 2021-22 and FY 2023-24 reveals that PTI’s claims of economic success were largely rhetorical. The overall picture indicates that the touted achievements were more about rhetoric than substantial actions. PTI’s tenure did not translate into the significant economic growth and stability they proclaimed, highlighting a discrepancy between their assertions and the real economic outcomes. While PTI’s claims of economic success were often overstated, the current government has demonstrated a positive economic trajectory. The recent improvements in key metrics such as agricultural growth, export and import figures, inflation rates, foreign exchange reserves, and fiscal management indicate a substantial positive shift in Pakistan’s economic landscape. The significant reductions in trade and current account deficits, alongside increased investor confidence and a rising savings-to-GDP ratio, suggest a more stable and promising economic environment.
These developments underscore the effectiveness of the current administration’s policies in fostering sustainable economic growth and enhancing financial stability, reflecting a more accurate and optimistic picture of Pakistan’s economic progress.
The writer is a freelance columnist.