Striving for survival is one of the key characteristics of human beings. The process is so complex that sometimes we confuse the means of our survival and choose means that benefits us on one hand and slowly kills us on other hand. Its human psychology and mindset that is mostly influenced by large scales and numbers.
Human always counts benefits and losses in monetary form and ignores whatever is not counted in monetary form. Let’s see the efforts made especially in the global north for better living standards and economic gains, where it is fed in our minds that it is development, and on the other hand, the same developmental mean is threatening not only the lives of the global north but also the poor countries around the globe.
IPPC Report 2023 shows that human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming, with global surface temperature reaching 1.1°C above 1850-1900 in 2011-2020. The report also suggests that global warming will continue to increase in the near term (2021-2040) mainly due to increased cumulative CO2 emissions.
The industrialized Global North is responsible for 90 percent of excess emissions. The benefits from industrialization may be reaped by them but the negative environmental impacts engulf the global south, the underdeveloped and poor countries.
Rising temperatures, heatwaves, erratic weather patterns, GLOFs, floods and droughts have become more intense and frequent. These climate-induced disasters have huge impacts on the poor nations and regions dependent on agriculture and natural resources for survival.
Climate change poses serious challenges to the physical environment, but it is also framed as a risk multiplier that can intensify the risk of poverty, inequality, and violent conflicts. The change in the climatic pattern is increasingly becoming a catalyst for tension and instability, aggravating the existing socio-economic and political pressures. The climate-induced migrations and resource scarcity are putting immense strain on vulnerable communities and posing serious security issues.
Pakistan contributes less than 1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions but is ranked among the top ten vulnerable and climate-affected countries. In 2022, Pakistan experienced one of the most severe floods in history, causing substantial loss and damage to the country’s infrastructure, economy, and livelihoods.
The industrialized Global North is responsible for 90 per cent of excess emissions.
The floods submerged one-third of the country under water, displaced around eight million people, and affected 33 million people. The PDNA report assessment estimates the total damages to exceed USD 14.9 billion, and total economic losses to reach about USD 15.2 billion. The estimated needs for rehabilitation and reconstruction are at least USD 16.3 billion which is projected as much as 1.6 times the budgeted national development expenditure for the fiscal year 2023. It is estimated that the total damage is equivalent to 4.8 percent of FY22 gross GDP.
The political and financial instability and climate-induced disaster further multiplies the vulnerability of the country to socio-economic imbalances and devastating impacts of climate change. These challenges threaten to spark climate-related conflict over resources such as water, food, livelihood sources and create social issues.
Pakistan is one of the countries with largest young population. Over 64 percent of the population of Pakistan is below the age of 30 years. The lack of job opportunities, social engagement, inadequate and unequal education, and health facilities, coupled with social injustices, and currently the climate change and induced disasters are turning this dividend into a ticking bomb.
There is a dire need to make a comprehensive strategy for the youth to engage them in the fight against climate change and induced disasters. The government needs to provide equal access to health, education and livelihood and address the feeling of deprivation of the youth and marginalized communities to avoid emergence of any aggression and conflict.
The resilience of the communities to climate change and induced disasters is pivotal. A country cannot combat climate change, climate-induced disasters and climate-induced conflicts until its people are resilient. However, the resilience of the people to climate change, climate induced disasters and climate change induced conflicts is highly dependent on the policies of the government, livelihood sources, sustainable infrastructure, and most importantly mass awareness about climate change.
The communities living in the peripheries of the country are dependent on their ancestral lands for their livelihood sources. Most of these communities are dependent on subsistence farming. In most of the developmental interventions their rights, needs and demands are ignored that leads to creation of aggression among the people.
There is need to revisit some of our policies and approaches which can impact the resilience of the communities such as mining and conservation policies. Both policies lack in taking the communities’ informed consent and their inputs in planning, designing and implementation of various interventions. Consequently, these interventions not only create a feeling of deprivation among the people but leads to conflict between the communities, government, and investors.
Addressing climate-induced conflicts requires a multi-faceted approach that incorporates intergovernmental cooperation and communication, humanitarian aid, and sustainable development strategies. A concrete effort is required to address the root causes of conflict, such as social and economic inequalities, political exclusion, and lack of access to resources that can create a conducive environment to conflict.
By addressing these underlying issues, we can reduce the likelihood of climate-induced conflicts.
Ali Rehmat Shimshali is a Research Assistant at Sustainability and Resilience Development Program. Ramsha Mehboob Khan is a Project Assistant.