The PML-N’s insensitive issuance of a three-day ultimatum to the ruling PPP to concede to its list of demands on the very day that Punjab Governor Salmaan Taseer was brutally assassinated seems destined to land the PML-N itself in trouble. The PML-N had issued a ‘reforms agenda’ to the PPP calling for the party to take immediate action on demands related to the economy, governance and implementing the Supreme Court’s verdicts, especially on the National Reconciliation Ordinance. The PPP has called the PML-N’s bluff by saying if their ministers are dismissed from the Punjab cabinet, they will ally with the PML-Q. The PPP’s confidence has received a boost by luring the MQM back into its fold at the centre. No longer a minority government in the centre after this restoration of the coalition, the PPP is not about to keel under to opposition pressure. The answer to the PPP’s future in Punjab — and the PML-N’s seemingly ill-planned strategy — lies in the arithmetic of the assembly. The provincial assembly consists of 370 members, of which 171 are PML-N, 107 PPP, and 81 PML-Q; 45 of the PML-Q members are in the forward bloc. Now a range of options exists as to how the situation can unfold in the Punjab Assembly. PML-Q’s forward bloc could face some tough decisions because floor crossing is grounds enough for disqualification as the remaining members of the PML-Q are not likely to join the PML-N. If the PML-N does oust the PPP from being the junior coalition partner in Punjab, it will be bereft of a majority. Raja Riaz, the senior PPP minister, has said that if this is what the PML-N is working towards, the PPP will join hands with the opposition. However, he has said that the PPP will not take the “first shot”. The PML-Q could very well ally with the PPP. This would leave the PML-N twisting in the wind. It is not surprising that the PML-N has continued to exert pressure on the PPP even after Mr Taseer’s murder; they surely would not mind a governor from among their ranks, but this seems even less likely than ever now. The PPP has been exceptionally patient with the PML-N. In Punjab, the six provincial ministers who belong to the PPP have complained again and again of how they have been unable to perform because of lack of empowerment or participation in the affairs of the province. Shahbaz Sharif has kept 13 important ministries, including the home ministry, planning and development ministry and information ministry, in his pocket. His policies have failed to deliver and arguably have put the finances of Punjab in dire straits. The province is almost bankrupt; salaries and contractors cannot be paid. The tight budgetary position generally has been made worse in Punjab by populist but ill thought through policies and programmes, some of which, such as the Sasti Roti (cheap bread) scheme, had eventually to be abandoned after millions went down the drain in quixotic fashion. In such circumstances the PPP ministers and the party as a whole have been practising extraordinary restraint and tolerance. The PML-N should not disturb this fragile system of democracy that the PPP has been labouring to keep intact. The PPP has kept to its promise of pursuing reconciliation to salvage whatever prospects for democracy this nation has left. It is advised that the PML-N back down from its harsh, obstructionist stance and let the democratic system and process move ahead.*