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Why call it black swan again and again

It is always convenient to
blame ‘external hands’ and ‘inherent systemic flaws’ while the one in power is not capable to hit at the actual cause. And this is universally true.

For example, the finance experts sitting as top regulators and central bankers knew the underlying causes of the second great depression that had set in since 2008 but they remained incapacitated to address the ‘market forces’ at work. There has always been criticism on the IMF’s conditionality programmes but even ‘imperial’ Europe is seeking its bailout from the same IMF’s oppressive policies, which have never worked for the development of a developing country so far.

Geo-strategically, Kashmir has always been the main source of tension in South Asia since the birth of two rival states in 1947 — India and Pakistan. They fought several wars over this issue. But now devoid of that ‘luxury’ after the two neighbours went overtly nuclear in 1998, they are unable to leash their respective monsters that have grown colossal from the constant supply of ‘nourishments’ over the last 60 years by consuming the lion’s share, particularly from the scanty kitty of Pakistan’s economy.

For Pakistan’s case, it was initially the cherished ‘Kashmir banega Pakistan’ (Kashmir will become Pakistan) slogan, which was later replaced by the ‘strategic depth’ catchword. ‘After nukes, what now’ was the big question mark in the minds of the ‘true rulers’ and the intelligent strategists found a quick answer as the Soviet Union disintegrated and the mess crystallised into what is known today as the Taliban.

It was most unfortunate that the political elite almost always remained incapacitated due to varied reasons to find a motto or a catchword to charm the power house for them. Once they got ‘roti, kapra aur makan’ (food, clothing and shelter) but that too was buried deep in the abyss created by the split of the two wings. The enchanter of the buzzword himself was standing on the slippery grounds wet from the blood of the divide itself. After three decades of that split, the country is on the verge of perhaps multiple chasms in waiting. The potential threats, this time, are not merely due to ‘inherent systemic flaws’ like geographical inconveniencies, or ‘external hands’ but encompass deeper causes of injustice, deprivation, manipulation and oppressive domination not by foreign imperial lords but by the politico-military elites sitting in Islamabad who are not ready to accommodate linguistic, logistical, socio-economic, cultural and financial claims.

Conveniences can be too costly at times. This is the fact that the leadership seems most oblivious to not only today but from the very beginning. And the costs have been constantly paid by innocent lives, in 1971 and almost every day since Pakistan provided sanctuaries to the extremist forces including the Taliban and their ideology. These physical sanctuaries, once temporary, have now become immortal in the form of infiltration into the local masses and transforming them into countless brands and shades of different sects and groups, including the Pakistani Taliban.

Addiction for such convenient blame games have made us numb to realise what we have become today economically, socially and even morally. The policy on terrorism and joining the western alliance to counter the extremist faction is but one of its manifestations. The endless string of corruption scandals at the top political level is another case in point. The contagion does not end here. It has crept deep into the ruling elite’s strategy to survive without stopping at any point and realising the consequences of their shortsightedness. Sardar Mengal said just this week that Balochistan has reached the point of no return. Does that affect our rulers a tad — certainly not. His must be taken as a call in vain but was that not the case in 1971 too? What have they thought of the humming going on in FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa where the majority of the masses are ready to follow suit? Would it suffice to take support of the convenient blame game again and again and tag it ‘external hands’ and be satisfied with the outcomes? It would not.

Why not take stock of our actions today and not let another black swan emerge as Pakistan has experienced with the dismemberment earlier. Let justice be the rule and the whims of the ruling elites be subservient to the greater cause of solidarity.

 

The writer is a Chevening scholar and is doing a PhD at AIIFL, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong. She can be reached at [email protected]

Filed Under: Op-Ed

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