Pakistani Erdogan

National elections in Pakistan are around the corner and if certain polls are to be believed, Pakistan may have a new prime minister in 2013, if not sooner. In order to deliver the Pakistani nation from the economic doldrums, the next prime minister will have to learn quickly and act even faster. The spectacular success of the Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan (pronounced: Er-do-ahn), in pulling Turkey back from the economic brink and placing his country on the road towards economic prosperity offers an instructive case in point.
Recently, Pakistani politicians and policymakers seem to have rediscovered Turkey. ‘All things Turkish’ has become the new fad judging by the endless references to that country on primetime television. Shahbaz Sharif, the Chief Minister of Punjab, has been a regular visitor to Turkey, where, according to sources, he has been tirelessly working towards bringing Turkish investment to Pakistan. A few months back, Imran Khan visited Turkey from where he tweeted about his appreciation for that country’s successful development model, particularly since Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (known in Turkey by the acronym AKP) came to power in 2002. In other words, it seems Turkey is now going to be our role model on the road to development.
Turkey has made tremendous economic progress since the AKP took over in 2002. Data obtained from the World Bank shows that during the nine years preceding AKP’s arrival at the helm (1993-2001), the average gross domestic product (GDP) growth per year was three percent. However, in the nine years under AKP (2002-2010), the GDP growth increased at an impressive five percent per year — at five percent annual growth, it would take about 14 years for the present Turkish real GDP to double, as opposed to 23 years at three percent. During the same period, inflation amounted to an average annual increase of 76 percent in prices before AKP. Since the AKP has taken over, the average annual inflation has come down to 15 percent in the nine years from 2002-2010. In 2002, the Turkish per capita income was $ 3,553. It has now increased to $ 10,094 (2010) — almost triple.
Turkey’s economic performance has been so impressive by international standards that Jim O’Neill, who coined the acronym BRICs in order to categorise Brazil, Russia, India and China as the most attractive emerging economies in 2001, has recently come up with a new list of promising emerging economies. O’Neill’s new list is denoted by the acronym MIST that now includes Turkey besides Mexico, Indonesia and South Korea.
This economic turnaround in Turkey in the last 10 years could not have been possible without the transformative leadership offered by Erdogan. In reality, Erdogan’s humble beginnings, his political experience as well as his political struggles have actually enabled him to become the transformative leader that he is today.
Erdogan grew up in Istanbul’s working-class neighbourhood of Kasimpasha. Unlike previous Turkish prime ministers (including Ecevit, Ciller, etc) who went to the very prestigious Robert College, Erdogan graduated from a quasi-conservative Imam Hatip school (Imam Khatib), where he socialised with the children of other working-class families. At times, in order to make ends meet, Erdogan even had to sell lemonade in some of the tougher districts of Istanbul. By virtue of his humble beginnings, Erdogan thus developed a realistic ‘feel’ about the concerns of the common working-class Turkish people. This is one reason why he squarely focused on economic prosperity after becoming prime minister in 2003. Perhaps one reason why Pakistan has, to date, not been able to produce a transformative leader in the same league as Erdogan is that a majority of Pakistan’s political leaders hail from traditionally privileged sections of society. As a result, Pakistani politicians fail to develop the level of empathy that is required to obtain a better purchase about the challenges a common Pakistani goes through in a daily cycle of 24 hours.
Erdogan’s good governance after becoming prime minister did not materialise out of thin air; his good governance is born of hands-on political experience. He has learned the ropes of governance as the mayor of Istanbul from 1994-1998. He worked very hard in successfully addressing Istanbul’s entrenched problems: water shortage; poor waste management; pollution and empty coffers. A majority of Pakistani leaders, however, lack hands-on political experience, as a vast majority has never really participated in the political process at the local government level. The Pakistani people’s representatives can only be found waxing eloquent at the highest political forums of the national and provincial assemblies, while ignoring basic governance issues like municipal services.
Erdogan’s political struggles in emancipating the Turkish people from the clutches of the Turkish ‘deep state’ (the Turkish version of the Pakistani ‘establishment’) are the stuff of legend. Like a true transformative leader, rather than leave the political arena, Erdogan chose to stay inside and fight the deep state with his stellar performance. After becoming prime minister, as Erdogan’s governance delivered year after year, he gained popularity, winning three successive elections. At the same time, he tightened the noose, inch after inch, around the elements of the deep state, especially in the military and the judiciary. At this moment, General Kenan Everin is undergoing trial for staging a military coup in 1980. Throughout his political struggles, Erdogan’s focus and dedication on improving the quality of life of the average Turk has been unflinching. Struggling and then winning against the deep state, most likely, has given Erdogan the strength of character necessary to take tough decisions in putting Turkey on the road to economic prosperity. In contrast, the struggles of Pakistani politicians, more often than not, are confined to bolstering their parliamentary strength through backdoor lobbying with rival members of parliament.
The ‘perfect storm’ of challenges Pakistan faces today beckons for a Pakistani Erdogan, who possesses Erdogan-like qualities in order to tackle these challenges. Though Pakistan does not have an Erdogan-like transformative leader at the moment, sincere Pakistani political leaders can improve exponentially from investigating, analysing and finally copying the real drivers behind Erdogan’s stellar performance, as opposed to concealing their Swiss bank accounts and foreign assets from the prying eyes of the media.
Even if the current lot of Pakistani political leaders cannot claim to have had humble beginnings, they can make amends by reaching out to the Pakistani ‘street’. A street-level education will show the would-be Pakistani Erdogan that the concerns of the average Pakistani could not be further from the grandiloquent terms of national honour and national security. The street yearns for jobs, electricity and stable prices.
There is no alternative to real, hands-on political experience either. The would-be Pakistani Erdogan should try to obtain political experience, preferably as a local mayor, before making a dash for the prime ministerial slot, only to be frustrated by the endless machinations of the state bureaucracy.
Finally, an unflinching strength of character and personal integrity is required to stake a claim as a Pakistani Erdogan. Only a handful of Pakistani politicians have legitimately engaged in a genuine political struggle — the rest still dream of riding to power on the establishment’s horse. This will not do. A would-be Pakistani Erdogan must politically struggle and win the hearts and minds of the Pakistani people through stellar governance. We are all waiting for a Pakistani Erdogan!

The writer has taught economics at Lahore University of Management Sciences and presently works for the development sector in Islamabad. He can be reached at aqdas.afzal@gmail.com