Given the number of participants and interested parties in the Afghan drama of the last 12 years, the amount of mistrust and duplicity between the so-called allies, and the divisions and factions within some countries, it is not difficult to see how complex and chaotic the situation has become when most actors are either secretly or openly working at cross-purposes. Unravelling this web of conspiracies and bringing peace to the region seems far away, which makes Pakistan’s position rather precarious, with the fragile condition of law and order and the economy.
The main players in this conflict are the US/NATO, Afghanistan, al Qaeda, Taliban, Pakistan, and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), with India as the active non-participant. Not to mention the factions within Taliban and theTTP, the Iranian concern and the interest of China and Russia from a global perspective.
The mistrust between Afghanistan and Pakistan developed in the very early stages when the hostile Northern Alliance came to power in Kabul. This led Pakistan to make one of its biggest mistakes: getting involved in the Afghan war. Pakistan’s weak-kneed ruler, who was conveniently forced into this second foray in the region by the US, erred grievously by taking the military option to covertly support the Taliban rather than a diplomatic route to repair relations with Kabul and thereby attempt to block India also. The US would have made us assist forcefully, as it was clearly in their interest to do so. It is not possible to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds without it soon becoming evident to both. Our duplicity did not allow us to satisfy the demands of both our partners, and also created conflicts with the Taliban, who then in 2006/7 created an offshoot consisting of those Taliban who were Pakistanis into what we now know as the TTP. The TTP was formed to pressurise Pakistan to give up its support to the US. The results of their mayhem are in front of us. The double games pursued by General Pervez Musharraf and his commanders failed miserably, as Pakistan was at sea, mistrusted by all and friends with none.
First, the Musharraf government and then the civil-cum-military leadership proved inept at containing or eliminating the Taliban and TTP onslaught, which has since spread all over the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province and most parts of the country. Actually, the Taliban’s capture and occupation of Swat would be considered the nadir of our political and military history since 1971. Surely this was a massive failure on the part of the intelligence agencies. Somebody else’s war is now being propagated as our war without saying that it has become our war only due to our incorrect policies and our failure to deal with it effectively at an early stage.
It seems the operations in the South Waziristan and elsewhere may have flushed the Taliban and others from there to move them to our cities and to the North Waziristan. Not much help, is it? Comprehensive steps to deal with the insurgency were never taken; did someone have a soft corner for them? Were there some in positions of power who subscribed to their aims? Or was it simply a failure to perceive the seriousness of the threat?
Mian Nawaz SharIf and his party were crying hoarse during and before the election campaign that there should be talks with the TTP, but it seems no homework, no planning, and no strategy was developed beforehand, as it took them months to get their act together and call the All Parties Conference (APC). Even after the APC, the monumental dithering continued, and we are now told that a delegation of some ulema was to deliver an invitation for talks on November 2, eight weeks after the APC. What was holding the government back? Chaudary Nisar tells us that he was laying bricks for seven weeks to get an invitation across; pray tell how many of those bricks were to get over the dithering in the inner cabinet and how many to plead for the establishment’s approval and the few remaining to open channels of communication with the TTP?
International media has reported conspiracies hatched against Pakistan by Afghanistan and India, whereby a group of insurgents has been trained and installed on the Pakistan side of the Afghan border to carry out bombings and other sabotage activities to destabilise and also derail any talks with the TTP. It was also reported that the Peshawar church bomb was probably their handiwork. Is our intelligence aware of these activities? The Indians and Afghans are succeeding in destabilising us, sabotaging our talks, building the pressure on Pakistan; what are we doing to defend ourselves? It is quite amazing how these days Americans can drone us, the Indians, Afghans can bomb us, the TTP can hit us at will, and we are like sitting ducks.
In our country, the civil and military rulers, the upper classes, feudal and a majority of intelligentsia are wedded to the idea that the US is our lifeline and saviour, and many are still deluded that the US is our friend. The US is nobody’s friend; it worships only its self-interest. It carries out illegal wars, topples regimes, supports coups, flouts sovereignty, subverts, sabotages, and behaves unjustly — all to protect its perceived interests. A close ally like the German Chancellor was not spared so who are we? It is quite clear that the Americans blew up Hakeemullah Mehsud at this time to sabotage any chance of immediate talks with the TTP. Their reasons could be, among others, that if we get any semblance of peace from these talks, the argument that this is ‘our war’ is weakened. Moreover, if the TTP are less involved in Pakistan they would move their sights to the Afghan theatre, which NATO wants to leave in 2014.
Unfortunately, doublespeak and hypocrisy have become a part of our civil and military rulers’ official vocabulary, and also the bureaucracy that serves it. Therefore, scepticism is a natural reaction to their utterances and mistrust automatically creeps in. For instance, since 2004, we are being lied to about drone strikes, and now we know that Musharraf made a secret agreement allowing drones. That means Musharraf, the establishment and Zardari’s government all lied to the nation! One, therefore, wonders what to make of the interior minister’s recent anti-US tirade. Do we take it on face value, or is it a political act of doublespeak? It is embarrassing, but one needs to be reminded that truth is one of the essential core values of Islam while hypocrisy is shunned, without any exceptions.
It is said that for a successful drone strike ground support in the form of intelligence is required, which means spies, chips, and lasers etc would be needed. Then the question arises who has been providing this intelligence and hardware and why? If it was provided by our intelligence agencies in the past as a result of the secret agreement, should it not have been stopped with the coming of the Nawaz government and its publicly announced policy against drones? One can either conclude that the government’s writ does not extend to the defence establishment or that the Nawaz government is also complicit and hypocritical. In both cases it raises serious issues for the nation to ponder.
The hue and cry and vilification of the proposal to hold talks belies comprehension. After all, the Americans also want talks with the Afghan Taliban in an ongoing war where many have been killed on both sides. The IRA and the Unionists negotiated an end to a long and bloody war by talking. Forget the rest; our Prophet (PBUH) negotiated the famous Sulaih Hudaybia. Talking to the adversary does not imply surrender, does not mean weakness; all it means is to explore whether peace is possible so that further bloodshed and destruction can be avoided. Is that such a reprehensible idea to explore?
It looks like these talks are now derailed; the US and its supporters within have successfully sabotaged them. It is not quite clear whether the Nawaz government is complicit or another Kargil has been delivered to them; time will spill the beans. If the PM is really keen to talk, a breakthrough has to take place very soon as we cannot afford to delay taking military action too long.
The writer is a businessman and a former chairman of the National Textile Foundation. He can be reached at [email protected]