The forthcoming sixteenth general parliamentary elections of India will be another litmus test for the institution of democracy, with more than 800 million people exercising their electoral franchise, the largest in the world. Unlike western countries where the polity consists of two or three major parties, third world democracies are often marked by a multi-party electoral system. In India, where parliamentary democracy is modelled after the Westminster system, the general elections now underway will decide the fate of close to 80,000 candidates contesting in 543 constituencies. This election will also witness the addition of a new state Telangana, carved out of the erstwhile Andhra Pradesh state, the remnant of which is called Seemandhra (coastal Andhra). The Indian democratic system has seen motley coalitions of various alliances over the last two decades when no single party has managed to get an absolute majority of 272 seats. Hence at times it has witnessed political alliances of two or more parties with differing ideologies, joining hands for the sake of power over a common minimum agenda. The largest alliance eyeing the throne is the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by the Indian National Congress, which includes the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and some other regional parties.
Another player in the race is the so called “third front”, consisting of the leftist parties; Biju Janata Dal of Orissa led by Naveen Patnaik, Janata Dal (Secular) led by Nitish Kumar of Bihar, JD(S) of the former Prime Minister Deve Gowda, and some small regional parties that do not align themselves with either Congress or BJP. But the strength of the third front is questionable as another major regional party, Trinamool Congress (TMC) of Miss Mamata Banerji, with a forecast number of 20-plus seats, is deathly opposed to the communists and will not join this front. The NDA has already put forward Narendra Modi, Chief Minister of Gujarat, as their prime ministerial candidate, but the UPA is yet to officially announce their prime ministerial candidate though one thing is clear; that their reigning two-term Prime Minister (PM) Manmohan Singh is out of the race. The general public feeling is that Rahul Gandhi, son of the former PM the late Rajiv Gandhi and his wife Sonia Gandhi, President of the Congress Party, is likely to be first choice. Some key players also have cropped up in this election like Arvind Kejriwal from the newly formed Aam Admi party (AAP), which is fighting on an anti-corruption agenda. It made a stunning debut in the Delhi Assembly elections but it remains to be seen whether the same phenomenon will be observed on a pan-India basis or will remain confined to Delhi and a few metro cities.
While the NDA accuses Congress of corruption, inflation, and the infiltration of foreign elements onto Indian soil (such as illegal Bangladeshi immigrants), the major allegation against the NDA has been communalism, especially the ghost of the 2002 Gujarat riots that still haunts Modi. And though NDA boasts about the economic development of Gujarat, critics have been vocal in questioning the veracity of the claims, particularly in regard to social development indexes. Hence these elections will be contested on a plethora of issues, from corruption to communalism, from security to employment, addressing regional aspirations, development in the social system, women’s empowerment, good governance, bringing down inflation, to greater spending on education and health, to revamping the judiciary for faster clearance of cases, etc. Narendra Modi is contesting the elections from Varanasi — the holy city of the Hindus — clearly sending a signal of Hindutva ideology, which might influence the voting in eastern Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Bihar to swing in favour of the BJP. He is also campaigning around the clock, crisscrossing the whole country and keeping audiences spellbound with his oratory. However, his weakness is the minority vote, which is unlikely to favour the NDA. The southern state of Tamil Nadu votes will also have a major impact on government formation, since neither Congress nor the BJP are strong in this southern state. The two major players in this state are the Dravidian political parties, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), and who aligns with who will be crucial to tilting the scales.
The dance of democracy has already begun as of April 10, starting from Delhi and Assam, and will continue in different stages right up to the second week of May. It is an enormous exercise with security forces deployed in Naxalite-infested states where violence is expected. The Election Commission must be commended for doing a great job with such efficiency, watching every move of the parties and censuring them wherever irregularities take place, sparing no one. They have also imposed a ban on exit polling as it could influence the course of the elections based on trends elsewhere. The final counting of votes registered electronically will be done on May 16, 2014 and by noon the trends will be known and the picture will emerge by evening. Depending on the results, there will be intensive lobbying by various parties and claims and counter-claims. The role of the president in ascertaining the strength of various formations will be crucial to government formation. Let us hope that democracy will triumph and a stable government will be formed in India, which is essential for the stability of South Asia.
The writer is a freelance columnist and independent researcher. He tweets @JanjuaHaroon and can be reached at [email protected]