The much-discussed and promoted China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a baby with hundreds of parents, at least in Pakistan. The incumbent PML-N government leaves no opportunity to take pride in its successful endeavours, while, at the same time, former president, Asif Ali Zardari, has repeatedly attributed the conception of the CPEC to his government. Regardless of difference of opinions on the project; commentaries on opportunities and backlash expected to come with it; or mounting suspicion regarding China’s grand strategic and economic designs – it is worth noting that CPEC was coming our way with or without the endeavours of our leadership.
CPEC is a tiny part of the One Belt, One Road – a Chinese grand strategy for the region. CPEC, as a project, is rarely mentioned in the OBOR maps.
Yet who knows what happens when. Still, there is hope. For instance, Joseph Nye, a distinguished political scientist at Harvard and former United States Assistant Secretary of Defence for International Security Affairs, had recently responded to a question on the U.S.’ views on the OBOR and Pakistan as: “Well, it’s all good if the Chinese are going to invest some of their resources in Pakistan. I believe we are all fine with it.” For him, probably, China initiated the whole programme for infrastructure investment. What makes China invest this much amount in conflict-ridden areas of Pakistan? One needs to see it using a set of different lens.
Let’s begin with the global one. China’s on the march-despite disagreements on the level of its modernisation, almost all agree on the notion of China’s rise. A global power needs its showcase filled, at least partially, with successes. U.S. had the Western Europe after the WWII and the creation of the modern international financial and political systems. For China – out of Myanmar, North Korea, and Pakistan – the last option is a safe bet to play. A long-time and perhaps the only ally, with an unexpectedly positive view for China, Pakistan can be its success case to show to the world. It provides China with the gateway to another world that connects Atlantic and Pacific oceans. What else? Neighbours are important in Chinese President Xi Jinping’s foreign policy. The project must also be a matter of prestige for Xi Jinping.
One of the most complex factors at play comes from the regional dimension. Success in the CPEC would provide China with an alternative to the Malacca Strait-particularly in the case of any distant U.S. blockade in future; keep an eye on the rising India that’s friends with the U.S.; work on bringing peace and stability in Afghanistan; and increase its influence in the region. A strong footing in Pakistan would constrain the Indian policymakers to think before they intend to ‘work with U.S. and allied navies’ in the disputed South China Sea.
In economic terms, however, CPEC is all bliss for China. South Asia is an attractive yet less-exploited market. Pakistan and its neighbours-Afghanistan and Iran, in case if India does not show any interest-offer an opportunity to the Chinese investors, businessmen, constructers, exporters, and energy giants to invest and make profits.
A global power needs its showcase filled, at least partially, with successes. The US had the post-war Western Europe. For China, Pakistan is a safe bet to play
The bilateral or local dimension is quite important especially when someone has to trace the roots of the project. A stable neighbourhood is a necessity for China-a country that shares the border with 14 states, of which four are nuclear powers. Already under pressure of mounting internal debt, growing income inequality, and worsening environment crisis, China faces a serious separatist threat in its western territories. Many have striven to attach the unrest in Xinjiang with militants and violent non-state actors operating in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Stability in these countries would help China deter the threat. At the lowest, these countries wouldn’t be safe havens for the Uighur militants anymore. A stable Pakistan can become China’s outsourcing market for future. Once operational, however, the CPEC project would help the authorities in Beijing to oversee the regional matters more closely and influence the neighbours.
Yet, let’s not forget the economic opportunities CPEC offers. At the local front, the success in CPEC would help China develop its western region and improve living standards of the disillusioned populace. The Chinese engineers, contractors, suppliers, businesspersons, and labourers are expected to dominate the local markets-while also creating opportunities for locals. Growing Chinese investments and interests also mean growth in the use of Chinese currency. Anxious to internationalise Renminbi, China would prefer to have business in local currency. And anyone can expect what happens when two parties are doing business in U.S. dollar and Ugandan Shilling. Assessing their currency preferences shouldn’t be a big deal.
Focusing on China’s position doesn’t imply that Pakistan has nothing to do with the CPEC. With all considerations combined, CPEC is now a project that’s to be completed with a high level of efficacy. The burly in Pakistan have to decide the future of the country and improve the lives of those hundreds of thousands who love the land and pray for its survival. And yet we can expect that the decision makers don’t do what has not worked for the people in the past. Yes, you guessed it- don’t put all our eggs in one basket.
Muhammad Shoaib is PhD candidate at Area Study Centre, Quaid-i-Azam University. He’s currently a visiting fellow at Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. He can be reached at [email protected]