Syria, until the devastating civil war that struck the country four years ago, was considered a nearly developed country. It had a prosperous middle class having a per capita income of $ 4,000, swamped with all the amenities of life. Civic infrastructures in Damascus, Aleppo, Lattakia, Kessab and other big cities were comparable to thriving cities in Europe and the US. Hospitals, schools and universities were of European standards. Shopping malls and markets had stocks of merchandise arriving mostly from Turkey but also from other countries in the Middle East and Europe. Syria has a limited supply of oil and gas but its agriculture was modernised and produced varieties of fruits and vegetables. Tourism was an important sector in the economy and tourists from all across Europe would flock into this home of ancient civilisation. Syria has a population of around 23 million living mostly in the urban areas with diverse ethnic backgrounds and religious orientations.
Syria has been a home of totalitarian regimes for the past 50 years. Hafeez al-Assad ruled the country from 1970 till he died in 2000. He was succeeded by his eldest son, Bashar al-Assad, a dental physician by background. Hafeez wanted his second son to succeed but his death in a car accident brought the eldest son to inherit the father’s title. Bashar’s succession raised some hope that he, being educated in the UK, would make a departure from his father’s dictatorial legacy and follow a trajectory more in line with pluralism. But that hope was misplaced: Bashar followed in the footsteps of his father.
Syria fought two wars with Israel together with neighbouring Arab countries. In the 1967 war, Syria lost the Golan Heights where the rivers and major waterways originated. It fought with Israel again in 1973 together with Egypt. Israeli troops advanced 40 miles north of Damascus. The capital was threatened. At that critical juncture, Iraqi troops joined the Syrians and pushed the Israeli army further north. The governments in Baghdad and Damascus were affiliated with the Socialist Baath Party leaning towards Moscow.
The 2011 Arab Spring Revolution originated in Tunisia and also touched Syria. The people legitimately demanded pluralism as a system of governance. The government of Bashar al-Assad responded brutally, sparking the ground for armed conflict. In the meantime, the movement also got a foothold in Egypt, paving the way for smuggling of arms into Syria. The government turned to the well-equipped army to quell the agitation. The army’s operations provoked large-scale unrest in the country. As the repression increased, more and more youth joined the anti-government movement. Troops and officers from the army could not remain united; there were defections and they joined the rebels.
The international community, including the UN, tried hard to mediate by appointing former Secretary General Kofi Annan as its special envoy. This did not work. The opposition – a coalition of heterogeneous forces – could not remain committed to a particular agenda while the Assad regime showed intransigence in coming to a compromise. Now the civil war has entered its fifth year. According to a highly conservative estimate, over 200,000 people have been killed and many more severely injured. About four million people have taken refuge in neighbouring countries and an equal number have been internally displaced. The World Food Programme (WFP) and UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the two UN agencies responsible for feeding and sheltering the refugees, are underfunded. Last month, WFP suspended the release of food items for two weeks for lack of funding. It is heart breaking to comprehend a situation in the midst of severe winter in which millions of people solely depend on handouts for survival but are denied food rations.
UN agencies are funded by the US, Canada and West European countries. The contributions of oil-rich Arab countries have never been significant. In the case of Syrian refugees, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar could have come forward and alleviated their hardships. But this has not happened. David Miliband, the former UK foreign secretary, has proposed resettlement of Syrian refugees in the US and Europe. Though this is not the solution of the crisis, nonetheless it offers respite for a small number. Syrian-US citizens settled in California, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia are professionals and desperately looking for opportunities to help their friends and relatives. The US government could facilitate sponsorships of their beleaguered friends and relatives. The UK, France, Italy, Germany, Canada and Australia could take similar actions.
There has been a convergence of friends and adversaries in Syrian battlefields. The US-led coalition forces are fighting alongside the Iranian military against Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria and the Syrian army abetted by Iranian troops is fighting against IS and rebel forces in Syria, while the US-led coalition forces are fighting against the Syrian army backed by Iranian forces in Syria. There have been demands for deploying US boots on the ground but the administration has decided against deployment as this would give credence to the reoccupation of Mesopotamia. Nuri al-Maliki’s former government in Baghdad alienated the Sunni community and the resurgence of IS has been the corollary of his sectarian policy. It would be the function of the Baghdad government to annihilate the ominous forces it gave birth to.
A decisive military victory by either side is not expected any time soon. Secretary of State John Kerry declared recently that the US would welcome a diplomatic solution of the crisis. Given the realignment of neighbouring countries in the conflict, a diplomatic solution is the only way forward. The Syrian opposition has reason to be disconcerted but four years of death and destruction, the plight of millions of refugees and resurgence of IS with all its brutality has made the search for a diplomatic solution compelling. Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the reactions of the US and European countries have further polarised the international community. Russia and Iran will oppose any formula unfavourable to the Assad regime while the fragmented opposition cannot yet show any spectacular success in the battlefield. Under these circumstances a roadmap of peace ending the bloodshed, return of the refugees and inclusive government should be drawn. The sooner this happens, the better.
The writer is a former official of the United Nations