Once again, Afghanistan — the country that is the exception to most others in terms of government infrastructure and state’s writ — is in trouble. It appears that no matter how much effort is made to stabilise the country known as ‘the graveyard of empires’, Afghanistan resists its move towards contemporary times with a vengeance, opting instead to exist in a time and space unbeknownst to many in today’s world.
After the Soviet invasion and the consequent civil war in the 1980s, there was hope that Afghanistan would start its journey down the path of a modern nation-state in the 1990s when the war ended. But it was not to be; instead, the emerging Taliban unleashed a reign of terror so brutal and wide-reaching that the world abandoned all hope and shunned Afghanistan. In its isolation, Afghanistan kept on festering without anyone noticing. This neglect, however, came at a hefty cost when the world was finally made aware of the malice that ailed Afghanistan in 2001. So, once again, there were efforts to rescue Afghanistan, efforts that have continued till today in one form or another, but it seems that all those efforts will also go waste. Forget about institutional frameworks and constitutional governments, the primary objective of military efforts -the eradication of the Taliban — remains a distant reality.
After suffering heavy setbacks over the past few years, the Taliban have made a comeback with full force in the last couple of months and have left a trail of death and misery in their wake. From Kunduz to Kabul, the Taliban have been able to target locals and foreigners with impunity. And even though some of their efforts have been ultimately thwarted, the fact that the group’s infrastructure remains as strong and robust as ever even after much of the old leadership has been killed is horrifying. There was some discord in the Taliban ranks after the death of Mullah Omer was made public, and Mullah Mansour — their new leader — had to make a lot of effort to cement his legitimacy. However, it seems now that all conflict has been resolved and the military group has set its sights on outward targets.
If the patterns of recent attacks keep repeating themselves, soon Afghanistan will return to the state of chaos and anarchy that it was meant to leave behind before the US invasion in 2001. Even after a decade and a half of the presence of US-led coalition forces in Afghanistan — and not to mention the trillions of dollars wasted on rehabilitation — the Taliban are mounting attack after attack and the various factions affiliated with the Taliban seem stronger than ever. And, lest we forget, if the Taliban falter, Islamic State (IS) will swiftly swoop in to claim their place.
To add to the misery, the Afghan setup under Ashraf Ghani remains as haphazard as ever, and there is very little hope as to Ghani’s ability to withstand the challenge to his government. President Ghani has been clutching at every straw that he can find to keep political institutions in viable shape in his country but the lack of support from the opposition, combined with his diminished credibility, make for a sorry state of affairs.
Another aspect of the regional security situation is the Pakistan-India dynamic and the corresponding stunted talks that take place every couple of years without any meaningful results. This is because, fundamentally, the two states do not trust each other one bit and, even with many hours spent on promoting peace and dialogue between the citizenry in Pakistan and India, the respective governments remain mistrustful of each other. The issue is compounded by the fact that the civil-military nexus in Pakistan is tilted in favour of the latter and since amicable relations with India are a thorny issue for the military, the civilian governments have never been fully able to take charge in this regard. There was some effort by the PML-N government in its initial days to assert itself by supporting better trade and economic relations with India but all of its efforts were soon cut down.
In the past couple of weeks, the doves have been jubilating over the promise of comprehensive talks between the two neighbours but there is a long way to go before any results can be expected. The topsy-turvy positions taken by the Indian government, combined with the limited influence of the elected government in Pakistan, do not make for ideal outcomes. The recent ‘surprise’ visit of Indian Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi is being hailed as a breakthrough in the deadlocked talks. This may be true but we must keep in mind two things: one, that Modi’s commitment remains unpredictable as ever, and two, that the security and intelligence agencies may not take kindly to the peace efforts made by the civilian government, since the Pakistani military establishment holds a deep mistrust towards India.
Under normal circumstances, this would have been business as usual but with the rapid deterioration of the security situation in Afghanistan, there can be grave consequences for the region’s security. This would spell disaster for any chances for peace in Afghanistan since the relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan are built on shaky foundations. Reaching out to the Afghan government is commendable but without the inclusion of other stakeholders, such as the civilian leadership in Pakistan, regional powerhouses like China and India, and even local chieftains in Afghanistan, the Taliban can never be brought to the negotiating table. However, since such a coordinated and comprehensive effort eludes us for the foreseeable future, perhaps the only thing we can do is to stand back and watch Afghanistan slowly decay and implode until the day we are forced to take notice once again.
The author is a freelance columnist with degrees in political science and international relations