At the start of 1800, the US and UK went to war, courtesy of the press gangs mounted on imperial British ships caught red-handed, exploiting the coastal cities of the US. Exploitation was not marine or material, it was the mass kidnappings for military drafts to fight napoleon. To fight the enemy, countries or empires can go to any length, erstwhile empires can even go further. This brings the federation of Russia into the equation, which is the arithmetic expression of three players gyrating in their spheres as well as towards a common pole. Why polar, because in this ever-floating universe one has to stick to something. These players are Pakistan, China and Russia. It is important to understand that Pakistan joining this equation will have far-reaching ramifications. Pakistan’s good relations with China, is taken by the world as friendship and mutual compulsion, but Russia coming into it will immediately convert it into a new geo-strategic block or a gravity-changing new pole. How far or how close Pakistan can go climbing this bridge over the deep mountain gorge? Pakistan-Russian relations are hyphenated with a sort of on-off toggle switch, which has created a relationship both hot and cold. This was the result of geo-strategic modern great games. Both closer on geography were further away on history. Diplomatic and bilateral relations were established in 1948. Pakistan had an inbuilt inclination to join the West though Liaquat Ali Khan wanted to have necessary cordial ties with USSR. During the five years development plan of 1955-60, a road map for a steel mill was suggested to jump-start the industrialisation of the country, which was not possible without steel and iron. Even today, no economy can progress without industrialisation, which cannot take place in a country without its iron ore. The US was requested for the same, but it did not materialise and eventually, USSR in 1973 started Pakistan steel mills at the coastal city of Karachi, where raw material can be had through port operations. Few experts at PCSIR then suggested building a steel mill at Kalabagh, which has very huge iron ore deposits.
No economy can progress without industrialisation, which cannot take place in a country without its iron ore.
Russians were adamant about Karachi and Bhutto gave the go-ahead as per the Russian desire. Pakistan missed twice on Kalabagh, one by not exploiting the mineral deposits and second by abandoning the Kalabagh dam, which could have saved Pakistan’s agriculture. The lesson, domestic vision and initiatives actually steer the stable foreign policy of a country. Liaquat Ali Khan’s death, the U-2 incident, friendship treaty with India in 1971 and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan were the lows between Pakistan and Russia. The steel mill, launching of Badr satellite, Nawaz sharif’s visit to Kremlin in 1999, support for Pakistan’s membership for SCO, financial support for the CASA 1000 are a few threads from where both can weave new relations. If bilateral, these will be for the good of both the people as the orientation will be economic. If the same is hyphenated with the emerging regional power, it will become a military alliance with all the geo-strategic complexities. On the other hand, if Russia tries to further stretch the equation towards India due to its already going on cooperation in the fields of space sciences, civil-nuclear energy and anti-terrorism etc, then again, India will lose the balance that it is trying to maintain as a surrogate to the US. Interestingly, Pakistan, China, India and Russia are engaged in a chessboard game where moves are to be carefully planned and meticulously executed. This is the Asian century paradox, where growth meets the strategy. The Russian unfolding of events in the coming days will define the stability of world security architecture. West thinks that Russia is about to play a gamble in Ukraine by amassing troops along its borders in an offensive posture. The Minsk treaty, the Budapest agreement, CSTO or the good offices of OSCE seems not to be working anymore. Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, invaded Georgia in 2008, annexed south Ossetia and the Moldova region of Transnistria. All of its East European neighbours, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, are wary. Therefore, the expansion of NATO for them is a natural corollary and for Russia, it is anathema. Gazprom and its Nord stream-2 are the real drivers of Russian foreign policy in Europe and particularly Germany. This explains the Ukraine crisis and German silence. A beautiful display of Russian west-Politik and German Ostpolitik. Is Russia a revisionist state or a revanchist state? History and narratives are changing in Europe due to Russia’s lack of soft power appeal. As quoted by Henry Kissinger, there is a process of re-imperialisation going on by Russia of the in-between states of Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Frozen conflicts are coming to thaw. This now sets the stage for the Pakistani prime minister’s visit to Russia. West and Europe are Pakistan’s trading partners, non-middle east diaspora lives in this region. It is in Pakistan’s interest that relations should be only of economic orientation, no more international political questions of great powers and the burdened little barn bunnies. The Ukraine crisis and what is going on in Europe dictates that Pakistan cannot afford to be a part of any great game. It should have good relations with Russia, China and the US. Balancing acts in diplomacy is an opportunity, that Pakistan should not miss. The third Kalabagh moment has arisen. Pakistan has already missed the industrial and the agrarian Kalabagh. Now, missing this one will result in a catastrophe of missing the ongoing human revolutions in science and well being and getting only embroiled in the frozen question of human history.
The writer is a freelance contributor on security related issues. He is also a Ph.D Scholar who can be reached at [email protected] Twitter: @Abid_Latif55