PESHAWAR: The succession of the new Taliban leader, and his two deputies Mullah Muhammad Yaqub and Sirajuddin Haqqani, following the death of the former Taliban chief, Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour, last week in a drone attack in Baluchistan, have made many security analysts observe the future of Taliban in Afghanistan and speculate over the prospects for peace talks from the prism of their diverse experiences.
Some say that the US has literally buried all prospects to attain peace in the region by droning Mullah Mansour. Others are of the view that the drone attack in Baluchistan significantly weakened the Taliban.
Some Afghan affairs’ gurus see the Taliban trio (leader and deputies) as hardliners, who would not pursue any breakthrough in peace talks, at least at this point in time. Many others foresee a short-term reaction by the Taliban but a gradual decrease in the violence in the long run.
Only a day after Maulvi Haibatullah was chosen by the Taliban Shura as the leader of the movement, the United States (US) and Afghanistan both offered peace talks to the successor of Mullah Mansour.
The new developments have opened avenues for a fresh debate pertaining to whether the successor of Maulvi Akhtar, Muhammad Mansour, will “move towards reconciliation” or as the spokesperson for the Department of State, Mark Tuner puts it, “prefer terror over talks.”
Besides, the current Taliban situation has also brought Pakistan’s position under discussion as the attack reportedly happened on Pakistani soil and, hence, all its efforts in supporting the “Afghan-owned and Afghan-led” negotiations are probably back to square one. Moreover, the double-game blame levelled against Pakistan by both the western world and Afghanistan, seem to have gained more weight and, resultantly mounted pressure on the country.
Pak-Afghan affairs expert, Salim Safi, observes that the US would try to exert pressure on Pakistan for arbitration as both US and Afghan government believe it to be a key player in the peace talks. On the other hand, Pakistan, too, can not stay away from the Afghanistan situation, because of its direct impact on Pakistan. Even more importantly the country has always established itself as a key player in the Afghan affairs, Safi said.
He also observed that the Taliban had now been weakened by the Mullah Mansour’s killing, and noted there might be a short-term reaction to the incident as the Taliban would try to avenge the death of their leader.
“I do not see any escalation in violence, in the long run, I see it decreasing in the future,” he said.
According to him, the death of Mullah Mansour has created a void which Haibatullah would not ever be able to fill.
“Despite the fact (that) Akhundzada is respected by the Taliban, he may not fully fill the shoes of his successors including Mansour and Mullah Umar,” Safi highlighted.
Senior journalist, Rahimullah Yusufzai, has a different take on the issue. He fears the invitation to talks will not work, at least at this point in time. Yusufzai explains: “It’s too late and too little. Besides, the US cannot have it both ways by striking the leadership and offering his successors to come to the talks.”He added that all three top leaders—the ameer and deputies—are hardliners. Elaborating further, the expert remarked, “Although Haibatullah is a religious scholar with little combat experience, it does not mean he is any different from former leaders.”
Yusufzai went on to say that the deputies also have a reputation for being fierce fighters and hardliners. It is evident from the promotion of Yaqub as the deputy that Taliban see a future leader in him and expect him to follow the footsteps of his father, Mullah Umar, he said.
He noted that unless the Americans or the Afghan government offer Taliban some incentives—prisoners’ release, the removal of Taliban commanders’ names from the UN Security Council blacklist or approving the earlier demand of a formal political office in Qatar—“wishing for peace is nothing more but living in fool’s paradise.”
Senior journalist, Tahir Khan, disagreed with Mark Tuner’s statement that Mullah Haibatullah was not on any terror list. “So was not Mansour, yet he was targeted,” He maintained.He highlighted the US and the Afghan government had always undermined one factor, that is, the decision-making power of the Taliban Shura (council). “Taliban have an established system under which Shura decides all important issues and chief is only the face of the group’s movement,” Khan maintained.
He said that talks might not even be a distant priority for the Taliban at this point, as they would lay their focus on organisational unity, sustainability and bringing the breakaway factions under one command.
Many Taliban dissidents had formed a splinter group under the leadership of Mullah Rasool after they had opposed the succession of the former head, Mullah Akhtar Mansour. Rasool was reportedly arrested by Pakistani authorities when he had fled the infighting between his and Mansour’s loyalists in the Khak-e-Afghan district of Zabul province in mid-November last year. He and one of his deputies, Mullah Abdul Manan, had escaped alive while his two other deputies, Mullah Mansour Dadullah and his brother had died during the November battle.
Khan observes that ethnic bonds always work in tribal societies. Both Haibatullah and Rasool belong to the tribe of Noorzai. He noted that the Taliban will succeed in bringing the Rasool group back to the fold because Rasool and his followers had disagreed to the succession of Mansour as a leader of the Taliban. “Now that Mansour has died there is no point for the dissidents to remain isolated,” he said.
Security analyst, Brigadier (retd) Mahmood Shah, carries a totally different opinion and argues that Pakistan had never had the power to persuade the Taliban as “they do not listen to us.” He sees the panacea to the situation in sending back the Afghan refugees to Afghanistan. He argued that Pakistan had its own issues and must purge the country of all kind of extremists and militants by taking drastic steps. The steps he suggested are: “The new Taliban ameer reportedly had a seminary in Kuchlak area of Baluchistan. It should be closed down and any Pakistani documents (CNIC and passport) that he might have acquired should be cancelled immediately. Pakistan should secure its borders with Afghanistan. Occasional incidents might take place but they can be tackled. Pakistan must stop intervention in Afghanistan (of any kind) as it cannot bring peace there because many forces do not want peace to prevail there.”