Nearly every country, which has been afflicted by the Coronavirus Pandemic, is engaged in the debate over lock down. Some are holding lengthy discourses, as to when to impose the lockdown while others are wondering over the duration and extent of lockdown. Those countries, where the lockdown has persisted over three weeks, are contemplating on easing the lockdown.
In Pakistan, with the advent of the holy month of Ramazan, clerics are demanding that regular Taraveeh, Friday and other congregational prayers are held in mosques. Many Muslim countries including the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have approved the edict that people should pray at home during Ramazan to avoid the COVID-19 and spreading it further. Islamic clerics in Pakistan are adamant although Taraveeh Prayers are not mandatory while Islam permits praying at home during catastrophes.
Every country with the exception of Sweden found it necessary to close down at least part of the economy in order to prevent the highly infectious virus from overwhelming their medical care systems. The exponential rate of infection together with a lack of sufficient health resources obviously meant an overwhelmed system that would be unable to provide care for those suffering from other illnesses and deadly conditions, such as heart attacks. The policy of isolation and social distancing has worked. It has reduced the infection rate to a manageable one in most places. One consequence of this success is to increase the sense of safety and the belief that the virus is a hoax being used to take away civil liberties. Keeping in view the high death toll, the virus is definitely real and not a hoax.
There is a wrong belief that the best policy is to let the virus spread in order to develop “herd immunity” is undercut by reinfection. There is no herd immunity to common colds or flu.
The success of social isolation has produced a belief that the virus was over-hyped, causing some people to call the policy into question. Crowds in violation of the social distancing policy are protesting against the rule, with some marching around with weapons. No doubt that the policy has costs that offset in part its benefits. But the question remains whether protest is an intelligent response or selfishness and a paranoia of its own.
In Chinese and Japanese cities where the spread of the virus was successfully controlled and the cities reopened, the result has been a second wave of infections. Based on the Chinese and Japanese experience, we should expect a reopening provoked by impatience to reignite the infection rate.
Traders in major cities in Pakistan are demanding the reopening of trading outlets. So far, the provincial governments are resisting despite protests. The protesters are wrong in thinking that a low death rate of the virus makes it a non-threat. In Pakistan serious testing for COVID-19 did not begin till recently. It is certainly possible that many more people have the virus than is known and that many of the deaths attributed to the virus are results of other causes. The virus is nevertheless dangerous because it is highly contagious, since the severity of cases widely differs without the ability to know in advance the severity of any case, because treatments are uncertain, because people without symptoms spread the virus, and because some recovered people have insufficient antibodies to prevent reinfection.
There is a wrong belief that the best policy is to let the virus spread in order to develop “herd immunity” is undercut by reinfection. There is no herd immunity to common colds or flu. There are many lessons that we should learn from the virus challenge.
But there’s one recovery the world seems to be largely ignoring-the national security one. Despite the onslaught of COVID-19, Indian jingoism is at its peak. Perhaps to divert attention away from its own failed policies, Indian troops are violating the ceasefire agreement of 2003 and bombarding civilians across the LOC. Indian partner in crime, Afghanistan is also creating problems for Pakistan at the wester border, taking a toll of precious lives. Simultaneously, taking advantage of the lockdown, terrorists and dacoits are targeting civilians.
Responding to the catastrophic impact of coronavirus requires a coordinated response at both the global and local levels. Thus far, we’ve seen world leaders like UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, French President Emmanuel Macron and others call for a global ceasefire, so that resources can instead be devoted to saving lives. As Guterres phrased it, “There should be only one fight in our world today, our shared battle against Covid-19.” Meanwhile, governments, including our own, are attempting to prioritize and coordinate financial and physical resources to respond to the virus.
In fact, many of our enemies will probably try to take advantage of this period to advance their missions against us-and we’ve given them the means to do it.
You don’t need a security clearance to know that the post-Covid-19 landscape will be a heightened threat environment-with an increasingly belligerent India and Afghanistan at our doorsteps, we just need leadership that acknowledges that and works to address it rather than ease the lockdown prematurely.
The writer is a retired Group Captain of PAF. He is a columnist, analyst and TV talk show host, who has authored six books on current affairs, including three on China