The exponential spread of Covid-19 attaining a pandemic status within a few weeks, globalization of gloom and now almost a world-wide lockdown are akin to living in a dystopian world which we encountered only in surreal plots of graphic novels and Hollywood movies. Today, no one can tell with a certitude that how long it will take to overcome this pandemic. During next few weeks if this is not contained, the health systems of developing nations around the world may start buckling under the pressure of disease. The optimistic estimates of Imperial College London suggest at least 900000 deaths in Asia. The World Bank in recent assessment titled South Asia Economic Focus Spring 2020 has predicted that the South Asian region is likely to experience worst economic performance of the last 40 years with a potential risk of negative growth for Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan. The Bank forecasts sharp rise in inequality as the poor are likely to be worst hit by loss of jobs and rising food prices in wake of Covid-19. In such an apocalyptic scenario of disease, poverty, and hunger, the society will no longer remain same as it was before the onset of pandemic. Though it is comforting to see that despite already troubled economic landscape, the government has mobilized resources to immediately protect the poor. But the potential scale of economic nose dive in days ahead may further intensify the social protection challenge. The situation demands both immediate crisis management as well as a rethinking about the post pandemic socio-economic landscape based on lessons learned in hard times.
In immediate and practical terms this means giving highest spending priority to health, education and social protection both in terms of budgetary allocations and share of GDP
The pandemic has driven this point home that human security primarily depends on access to social security and decent health care systems. In case of Pakistan, since the onset of pandemic it has become glaringly obvious that the both the health care system and social protection capacity to save the labour and informal sector workers from income shocks are not enough. If economy contracts as World Bank predicts, it will be a big challenge to effectively provide income support umbrella for a prolonged period. This situation has created a Catch-22 policy paradox. In the prevailing situation, probably the biggest ever social protection package has been announced in Pakistan but catastrophic magnitude of economic turmoil can render it insufficient. If mere size of economy were a sufficient safeguard, the pandemic won’t expose inadequacies of health care in USA. The spending priorities matter more than availability of financial resources.
Since the dominant narrative today promotes supremacy of market over society, the market dictates its own set of ethics. This in turn makes market values of growth, profit and competition the ruling values of society. This makes social spending look burdensome and ‘non-productive’ use of resources. In his fictional narrative of a plague-ridden town, Albert Camus alluded to same market dominated social order: Our citizens work hard, but solely with the object of getting rich. Their Chief interest is in commerce, and their chief aim in life is, as they call it, ‘doing business’. Hopefully, human ingenuity will soon succeed in defeating this pandemic, but in its aftermath, should our social and economic values remain same which create massive inequalities and disadvantages for a majority? Should everyday experiences of humiliation and injustice continue to haunt the poor? If we are wise enough to learn from life in days of pandemic, the answer would be ‘No’.
Let’s borrow an idea from famous American political philosopher John Rawls for doing a small thought experiment. While constructing his theory of justice, Rawls asks for imagining a situation in which no one knows about his or her social and economic position, race, ethnicity and gender and then he posits the question that what kind of society people would prefer in such a situation. In absence of inherited positional advantages, even the most selfish individuals will seek a safe option of a fair and just social and economic order. Rational people will prefer a society where no one occupies a higher place on basis of birth, where everyone is assured of equality of opportunity, where playing field is level for all, where no one meets injustice or suffers humiliation and where everyone is assured of good quality of education and health treatment and sufficient protection against sudden deprivation of income. If in a world marked by an unknown future place of individual, everyone prefers a fair society, would it not be justified to demand the same in real life? If in deep recesses of our mind, we find a reply in affirmative then there is immediate need to review our real-life policy priorities.
If we have to learn only a single lesson from our shared experience of living in an uncertain time like the one shaped by present pandemic ravaged world, that should be to accord highest policy priority to human welfare. Better performance on all indicators of human development should become new symbols of our national pride. In immediate and practical terms this means giving highest spending priority to health, education and social protection both in terms of budgetary allocations and share of GDP. If this shared experience of uncertainty and insecurity has offered us an opportunity to learn a few lessons – no doubt, in a hard way – we must grab it and collectively strive to reflect this in budgetary priorities, fiscal policies and in expansion of welfare system. This is the only way to become better ready for coping with the adverse impact of looming economic doomsday foretold by the World Bank.
The writer is a development policy analyst