The deal between US and Afghan Taliban was eventually inked at Doha on 29th February! Despite many doubts about its future and success, the deal is being called a significant historic step towards restoration of peace in Afghanistan. Much of its success now depends upon intents and actions of the stakeholders!Undoubtedly, Afghan people are the biggest stakeholders of anything related to their homeland. Afghanis, at the moment are being represented by Taliban and the non-Taliban players which mainly comprise prominent names like Ashraf Ghani, Abdullah Abdullah, GulbadinHikmatyar and Rasheed Dostum.
After sharing rule with president Ashraf Ghani as chief executive now Abdullah Abdullah is in no mood to accept his defeat as runner up of presidential elections against the former. It is interestingly strange that a deal was signed by US and Taliban while Afghan government, how weak may it be, is still functional. Signatories of the deal have a greater hold and influence on ground as compared to thegovernment. As per President Ashraf Ghani’s past disclosures, Afghan government cannot operate without US support for even two weeks. Signing of deal by subtracting Afghan government actually stamped the irrelevancy of the Ghani regime which is not even recognized by the past ally Abdullah Abdullah.
Question rightly arises that how the toughest part of the deal, the Intra Afghan Dialogue, will take place at Norway tentatively from 10th March onwards? Taliban dominated future governance regime will be political death of non-Taliban players. Taliban have emerged as a force well reckoned by none other than the US with their claim to hold more than seventy percent Afghanistan. Now, who will represent the rest of the thirty percent country in Intra Afghan Dialogue against the Taliban. Who will select the participants? Matter seems tricky and complex as the losers of recent presidential election have rejected the victory of Ashraf Ghani by objecting upon the transparency of electoral process.
Abdullah Abdullah , the runner up with approximately 30 per cent of casted votes , even announced to form his parallel government. Out of total 9.6 Million registered voters approximately 2 million Afghanis casted their vote. Besides transparency issues and low polling percentage, more than four months’ gap between polling and announcement of final results have further contributed in discrediting the electoral process. Ashraf Ghani, after bagging just 50 per cent votes out of a very lowturnout, stands absolutely irrelevant and strippedoff recognizablelegitimacy even fromthe oldpartners. A much expected ouster of Ghani regime with all pro-Indian players like Abdullah and Amar Saleh means a big blow to the forces patronizing proxies against Pakistan from Afghan soil.
Afghanistan needs a sigh of relief after decades long wars, proxies, bloodshed and unrest. More than 3 Million refugees have suffered a lot while living away from homeland. Peace is a joint Pak- Afghan desire which must be recognized by the global and regional players contesting in these lands for respective interests. Why Ashraf Ghani rejected prisoners’ swap with a meaningful advice to Taliban for breaking ties with Pakistan? Was he kept unaware by US about the prisoners’ swap prior to signing the deal?
Mysterious contractors, brutal Islamic State militants, and TTP escapees have many understandable reasons to spoil the deal
If yes, then why? If not, then why Ghani has attempted to spoil the deal by rejecting the swap? Did Ashraf Ghani ever ask US to break ties with that Pakistan which was praised by the Trump for facilitating the peace process? Answer to these mysterious questions most probably is linked to the meeting of Indian diplomat with Ashraf Ghani inKabul,a day prior to the Doha deal. Envoy delivered a special message of PM Modi to President Ashraf Ghani. One can fairly guess the message as India openly threw its weight on diplomatic front against the Taliban by supporting its old clients.
How a week Ashraf Ghani, absolutely dependent on foreign support, can take a stand at his own against the US-Taliban deal? Indian lobby is striving hard to avert the sinking of New Delhi’s heavy investments on anti-Pakistan assets. With this obvious identification, it becomes really difficult to figure out the real intent of US. If the deal aims at short term instant benefit for upcoming presidential elections,then Ghani has a hidden blessing of Washington. If Trump administration is really sincere about a responsible withdrawal with absolute restorationof peace, then a strong probability of deep state disagreement needs to be explored more.
Serious differences about Afghan campaign at top US tiers have already been disclosed in ‘Afghan Papers’. It is evident that Doha Deal is in crosshairs of many spoilers. All those likely to lose undue share of pie are the potential spoilers. New Delhi cannot afford to lose proxies created to coerce Pakistan.Mysterious contractors, brutal Islamic State militants, and TTP escapees have many understandable reasons to spoil the deal. Ghani’s meaningful rejection of prisoners’ swap was first out of the many spoilers.
Second spoiler has surfaced in the form of brutal attack claimed by Islamic State in Kabul on Friday. A tough test awaits ahead for all Pak-Afghan elements striving for peace , as the deal has to survive against many deadly spoilers .
The writer is a freelance