Amidst high tensions between Iran and America, American defence sectary Dr. Mark T. Esper’s tweet “Attack against us will be w/ in responses in the time, & place of our choosing” reflects thedeterminationof the former American sectary of state John Foster Dulles. In the early 50s, John Foster Dulles compiled the first American nuclear doctrine coloured in hawkish approach to deter the Soviets. The documents categoricallyconveyed that any minor miscalculation could entail the then”tight bipolar system” tothe point where return will be almost impossible.The American posture in the face of current escalation more or less displays the samedetermination. Any miscalculation on the both part can take currentcrisis tothe unprecedentedlevel of destruction.
In the lastfew years, theextraordinarygeo-political milieu of theMiddle Eastengendered various security apprehensions in general while in American case in particular. The overallpublic opinions including in the major section ofthe learnt circle suspiciously questioned the American waning capabilities to deal Iran’s assertiveposture.Confusion descended in strategic circles. Iranian intermittent responses mustered greater accolades. American alliance system started flutter and it had been failed to address Kingdom of Saudi Arabian’s concerns in face of growing threats of proxy militias all around.Ambiguity started to penetrate in the hearts and minds of pro-American elements andconsequently in many cases sense of betrayal dawned on the horizon of the American strategic commitment to regional alliance structure. Additionally, itssoft-power also has failed to overcome the growing level of Anti-Americanism. Apparently,sundry strategic minds gave the space to the notion of American retreat from the region. To understand the Middle East amidst of all these unsettled dust, one must see the Middle East through American lens rather than vice versa.In other words, the framework of the inductive reasoning can enlighten the minds in better way about emerging geo-political constellation of the region, rather than deductive.
Being cognizant of the shifting geo-political sands, American 2018 National Defence Strategy set forth new hierarchy of the regionalsin terms of their significance for American national interests. It kept theMiddle East at third, following Indo-Pacific and Europe, in the newly delineated hierarchy of choices for its foreign policy. Consistent to the given theoretical blue-prints, America moved its greaterforce under to “pivot to Asia” policy to Indo-Pacific to execute its grand strategymore pertinently, aims at China.As compare to the first two regions, the MiddleEast acquired tactical level importance. The Middle Eastern policy of the Trumps’ administration guides towards American security outsourcing policy and larger reliance on regional alliance system rather thedirect excessive involvement. The engagement will be limited to the level of steps to remedied the concerns of alliance members , keeping pro alliance system balance in the region , protection of its vital regional national interestsin general and in Persian Gulf in particular.
What apparently did serve General Qassem Soleimani’s killing to America? Firstly, it categorically conveyed strategic message to Iran that America can conduct any adventure just short of war to safeguard its interests in the regio
The work on”pivot to Asia” strategy has started to reshape during Obama era.Back 2011, years before the 2018 National Defence Strategy, Hillary Clinton, the then United States Secretary of State, had already explicitly expressed about the change, “The future of politics will be decided in Asia, not Afghanistan or Iraq, and the United States will be right at the centre of the action.”However, Last three years observed further refinement and clarity for way forward. All these developments inform that America is void of spirit or desire to wage a direct war against Iran. Any war scenario will only drain American resources and divert her attention from the central theatre of the 21st century geo-politics. Somehow Iran’s growing assertiveness has been the corollaryof new outlook of American defence posture, where China primarily threat.
Iran found proper space coupled with well advisedstrategic and tactical approach. First of all, Iran has total realisation of its conventional dimness, if ever she decides to confront America. Conventionally, unable to overwhelmthe joint forces of America, Israel and KSA, Iran resorted to the guerrilla warfare tactics, in this holy crusade, anti-American sentiments tightened diverse forces of the region,favourable terrain sheltered them, and well-orchestrated, financed proxy network served to assemble a large irregular force. Here comes Iranian Major General QassemSoleimani, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF). Being flag-bearer and architect of the Iranian proxy war doctrine, Gen, Suleimanigavethis assembled large force a lead and blue-print of “Doctrine of proxy war”.
The doctrine also became new military guidelines for conventionally feeble Iran to keep America at bay.As a result, All America needed to focus and contain this militia rather than Iranitself, and so it has been doing.On 29 December, America conducted surgical strikes in Iraq and Syria against Kataib Hezbollah. And on 3rd of January, American drone hunt down the master mind strategist, Iranian Major General QassemSoleimani, of the entire proxy strategy at Baghdad airport.
What apparentlydid serve General QassemSoleimani’s killing to America? Firstly, it categorically conveyed strategic message to Iran that America can conduct any adventure just short of war to safeguard its interests in the region. The strikes served coded medium of communication for Tehran, “no more arestrain”. Secondly, it reassured to KSA and Israel American serious security commitment in the region in the face of any Iranian aggression. Thirdly, the strike will help to resurrect American regional deterrence and being pragmatic actor Iran will tread careful course. Fourthly, if America did not act, it could have indulged region in direct regional conflicts between KSA, Israel and Iran. And in realistic terms, the chances of damage in such case would have been greater.
However, anti-American sentiments will be soaring high in general and in Shia community in particular. In the light of realism, Iran must concentrate its energies to sustain the vitality of wide network of the proxy militia built byGeneral QassemSoleimani over the last one decade rather than any miscalculated response that will only bring further debilitating consequences for Iranian security interests in the region.In the middle of rhetoric and pragmatism, the post-QasemSoleimani geo-political contours are demanding the urgency for new set of logical strategies for Iran in order for greater peace of the region and beyond.
The writer is MS in International Relations Adjunct/Visiting Lecturer National Defence University, Islamabad (NDU)