1960s the west was famous for two things, one the literary craze of mills and boons and the Dr Strangelove. Both were radiated responses. One was closer to feminism the other to the nuclear machismo. Even cold war was not so cold in normal exchanges between the states. Comes the 21st century and everyone become the nuclear fundamentalist, reluctant or deliberate, with inflexible responses.
Kenneth waltz’s, more would be better, is again gathering steam after decades of repudiations of sort. Courtesy a new arms race between Russia and USA. The second nuclear age is converging into the second conventional age of modern weapons, delivery systems and strange platforms with nuclear intent.
Earlier it was thought that conventional weapons age is diminished, but latest trends changed everything.
Global nuclear order stems from the global security environment. Present nuclear order is based on the principle of grand bargain, which states that the nuclear haves will not transfer their nuclear weapons to other states and will reduce the nuclear arsenal over a period of time; on the other hand the nuclear have not will not acquire nuclear weapons.
The grand bargain of global nuclear order is threatened by number of things like the threat to intermediate range nuclear forces treaty(INF) from a compliance dispute, where USA has accused Russia of violations.
The New START treaty will also expire in 2021. The multilateral arms control and disarmament processes are deadlocked.
USA is mainstreaming India as a nuclear weapon state by circumventing rules and chisel carving the waiver after waiver, disturbing the regional balance. Indian actions are negatively impacting strategic stability. India is actively involved in nuclear and missile programme.
The nuclear posture review of USA obliquely encourages the Indian idea of limited conflict or pre-emptive strike, which is why Indian army chief every now and then indulge in rhetoric, nuclear exceptionalism at its best.
USA has also just recently restricted nuclear trade with china, citing china’s policy of military-civ-fusion as a reason of this growing distrust. USA thinks that Russia’s and China’s new focus on limited war capabilities is challenging America’s traditional methods of deterrence by punishment. China’s build-up of anti- access Area Denial(A2AD)weapons and Russia’s escalate -to-deescalate tactical nuclear doctrine are examples of efforts to deprive the united states of escalation dominance in future contests.
To deal with this the USA needs to strengthen its frontline allies to deter by denial. So India is a part of bigger American scheme as far as global security architecture is concerned. This might convert again Afghanistan into a tripwire state or a strategic buffer the way it was during the great game. Indo -pak strategic equation is also getting loopsided by new weapon systems like Arihant submarine and S-400.
Whereas Pakistan has always treaded the way of reconciliation and confidence building measures with India, India has initiated the second conventional weapons age in the region. In 2012 through its representative ambassador raza tarar, pakistan called for comprehensive arms control treaty. In 2014, 99 countries ratified the arms trade treaty(ATT). 33 countries also signed the same treaty. The way India is indulging into a arms race, there is a need that the same be signed by both india and Russia.
All treaties covering both the nuclear and conventional regimes have three statuses , one being the party, second the signatory, third the ratification. India and alike play with the treaty status matrix, when treaty is signed but not ratified so they remain un obligatory.
The other snag is not taking these developments for the national legislation, therefore the treaty remain un situated politically. With the advent of killer drones, the autonomous weapons, laser laced satellites, stealth technology, nano platforms, artificial intelligence and what not, there is a need to redefine the global security architecture.
The list of global commons has increased manifold and individual countries can not be allowed reckless piling up of deadly weapons. During the five weeks marathon discussions under first committee of the united nation on disarmament and arms control, Pakistan tabled four resolutions concerning regional disarmament, conventional arms control, CBMs and the resolution of assurance to non-nuclear states on the threat of nuclear use.
Pakistan by this has become the only country to have corrected the paradox created in the principle of grand bargain under global security order. Pakistan has also made it amply cleared to India by these positive posturing that India despite acquiring over the board weapon systems can not have the escalation dominance, what to say about the act of deterring through denial. Walk a talk on comprehensive CBMs are the only option for south block .
The writer is a free lance who contributes regularly on security related issues. He is also a Ph.D Scholar who can be reached at [email protected]
Published in Daily Times, November 13th 2018.