The Federal Board of Revenue’s (FBR) revenue shortfall widened to Rs868 billion during the first 11 months of the current fiscal year 2025-26.
The FBR collected Rs11,227 billion during July-May against the revised target of Rs12,095 billion, leaving a gap of Rs868 billion.
“There are two major reasons, including sluggish economic activities due to the Gulf war, and secondly, prolonged Eid holidays caused a further hike in the revenue shortfall. The revenue shortfall ballooned to Rs184 billion in May 2026,” top sources in the FBR told The News in background discussions on Saturday.
The FBR’s provisional collection stands at Rs966 billion in May 2026 against the desired target of Rs1,150 billion. The FBR high-ups hope that the tax collection may go up a few billion rupees till the finalisation of the revenue figure. The tax machinery will have to fetch Rs2,752 billion in June 2026 in order to materialise the revised tax collection target of Rs13,979 billion by June 30, 2026.
Parliament had approved the FBR’s tax collection target of Rs14,130 billion on the eve of the last budget; however, the IMF had revised it downward from Rs14,130 billion to Rs13,979 billion for the current fiscal year 2025-26.
The FBR is now heading towards a revenue shortfall of Rs1 trillion, and in case the FBR touches the revenue collection mark of Rs13,000 billion, it should be considered as an achievement of the FBR.
The FBR high-ups hope that the board’s collection might go close to the Rs13 trillion mark by the end of June 2026. Keeping in view the performance of the first 11 months, it seems really difficult. However, the FBR sources said the prolonged Eid holidays caused a revenue shortfall of Rs60 billion that might be recovered in June, so the overall collection might go close to the Rs13 trillion mark. Now the question arises how the FBR will collect Rs15,267 billion in revenue, target set for the next budget under the dictates of the IMF, which clearly indicates that the Board will have to fetch an additional Rs2,200 billion in revenue collection for number crunching.
The FBR had collected Rs10,261 billion during the first 10 months (July-April) of the current fiscal year, against the assigned target of Rs10,945 billion. The shortfall stood at Rs684 billion and rose by 184 billion in May 2026; so the overall shortfall ballooned to Rs868 billion in the first 11 months of the current FY2025-26. The Gulf war has further aggravated the revenue shortfall; official data shows that Sales Tax at the import stage has nosedived, making it harder for the FBR to achieve the desired results.