On October 31, 2022, I wrote “Are We Already in World War-2.5?” published in Pakistan Times. Since then, I kept on writing and speaking that we are already at WW 2.5, and it has the potential to expand horizontally and vertically under any miscalculation or technological malfunction. But people did not take it seriously.
Israel’s and the U.S. attacks on Iran since the morning of February 28, 2026, have expanded very fast. Iran had already warned that if attacked, it would retaliate against the U.S. military bases in the Middle East. Now, that was a risky response, because that will expand the war to multiple countries in no time.
The same thing happened. Soon after the Israeli attacks, Iran started to respond against the U.S. military installations in Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman. However, Iran’s response was not limited to its neighbouring targets but also against Israeli cities.
Claims and counterclaims are part of warfare, and in this kind of war, which is no less than a mini world war, it is difficult to ascertain the losses on either side so soon. At least one thing has been confirmed: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with other family members, has embraced Shahadat in one of the first waves of U.S.-Israeli attacks on Saturday morning, February 28, 2026. However, the news was only confirmed late that night.
Perhaps this was one reason why Iran retaliated so swiftly and against multiple targets in many countries simultaneously. Iran’s response, though, was already known and serves as a double-edged sword for itself because attacking U.S. targets located in the Muslim States has alienated all the recipient states, and Iran lost any support or sympathy that might have been there due to its attacks on them. Moreover, Iran’s drones and missiles are not only striking the U.S. targets but have also attacked some civilian targets, particularly in the UAE.
Claims and counterclaims are part of warfare, and in this kind of war, which is no less than a mini world war, it is difficult to ascertain the losses on either side so soon.
This is very unfortunate. Iran must understand that the U.S. and Israel want it to create more enemies within the Muslim countries. They are well on their way to achieving their objectives, because each of the Muslim states attacked by Iran and some others have shown their anger against Iran for its attacks on their soil, even if it is on U.S. targets. However, when Iran attacks the Israeli cities and military targets, it is equally celebrated across those Muslim states, if not officially, then by the people in the streets.
The most unfortunate part of the entire episode is that Iran was negotiating a nuclear deal with the U.S., and the moment Israel felt that they might reach an Agreement, it attacked. The intent became clear. Israel never wanted a nuclear freeze agreement between Iran and the U.S. to succeed because it would lose the opportunity to attack Iran and reduce the country to a level where it can never become a threat again in the near to medium term, at least.
Israel and the U.S. have appeared to have succeeded for now, but will this stop here? I don’t think so. We will have to wait and see the reaction of the Iranian people when they learn about the Shahadat of their Supreme Leader. The people’s sentiments will be known when the official burial of the spiritual leader takes place, for which the date and time are yet to be announced. Also, a lot will depend on the Ayatollah’s successor, and that will be evident in his acceptance speech, if it is made public anytime soon.
The time chosen by Israel and the U.S. to obliterate Iran’s nuclear programme deserves some credit. They know that multilateralism has not yet taken hold, and the international system remains firmly under U.S. control. Russia is busy in Ukraine, and China is eying a potential embrace of Taiwan before 2027. Even though Russia and China had deep economic and military ties with Iran, neither has the time nor the interest to come forward and protect Iran at its most difficult time.
Even if Israel and the U.S. win the first round by killing the Ayatollah, the deep cleavages they have created in the region will not go in their favour, and perhaps their military bases in the region will remain legitimate targets for times to come. However, the real success will come to Israel and the U.S. only if they can install a government of their choice and if the people of Iran accept it to govern them legally.
I sincerely pray for the safety and security of the people of the entire region, and hope that sanity will prevail. This war must end immediately without causing further losses to any of the regional countries.
The writer of this article has authored four international books: Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan, South Asia Needs Hybrid Peace, Understanding Sun Tzu and the Art of Hybrid War, and Diplomacy and Deterrence.”