India’s imports of Russian crude are showing resilience, with December volumes likely topping 1 million barrels per day. Buyers rushed to finalise deals ahead of Washington’s November 21 deadline for transactions with Rosneft and Lukoil, defying expectations of a sharp decline.
After shipping 1.77 million bpd of Russian oil in November, up 3.4% from October, imports are expected to reach 1.2–1.5 million bpd in December. The surge reflects continued strong ties between India and Russia, following a recent meeting between Prime Minister Modi and President Putin.
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Top Indian refiners, including Indian Oil Corp and Bharat Petroleum, are resuming purchases from non-sanctioned Russian suppliers. Reliance Industries and Hindustan Petroleum are halting or reducing volumes, while Nayara Energy, partly owned by Rosneft, continues buying Russian crude.
To maintain exports without breaching sanctions, Russian producers are using domestic swaps—exchanging oil for local refineries while non-sanctioned entities handle export volumes. This strategy allows Russia to supply India despite Western restrictions.
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Indian refiners are drawn by steep discounts of around $6 per barrel versus Brent, wider than in August. Imports may stay near December levels into January, although some private refiners have paused purchases, potentially lowering volumes below 1 million bpd next month.