India’s import of discounted Russian crude post-Ukraine war could’ve been a geopolitical masterstroke—securing energy, reducing inflation, and easing public burden. Instead, it became a case study in crony capitalism: private profits for a few, public pain for many.
The Opportunity That Was Squandered
When the West sanctioned Russia in 2022, India boosted its Russian oil intake from <1% to over 35%, saving ~$10.5B in forex. But who benefited?
Who Got Rich?
Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries and Rosneft-owned Nayara Energy cornered over half the crude.
• Refined it.
• Exported diesel & jet fuel to EU/US.
• Exploited the “refining loophole” bypassing Western sanctions.
Reliance’s stock rose 34%. Indian households got ₹0 relief.
What About Public Benefit?
Retail fuel prices remained unchanged—45–50% of the price was taxes. The public got no savings. Why?
• Govt allowed open market imports but didn’t prioritize public-sector refineries.
• No windfall tax enforced on private refiners’ super-profits.
• Strategic petroleum reserves? Not filled.
The Diplomatic Fallout
• July 2025: Trump slaps 25% tariffs on Indian exports + “penalties” for buying Russian oil & arms.
• EU sanctions Nayara. CEO resigns.
• India’s diplomatic posture weakened, with rising scrutiny and risk.
Final Insult: Private Profits, Public Penalties
The billionaires made billions. The Indian state faces blowback. And the common man continues to pay ₹100+ per liter for fuel.
What Could’ve Been Done
• Pass savings to consumers: ₹10–15/ltr cut in fuel.
• Use arbitrage to fill reserves.
• Reduce debt, invest in renewables.
• Avoid geopolitical risk for private gain.
Instead:
1. Private refiners profited.
2. State paid the diplomatic cost.
3. Public bore the inflation.
⚖️ Crony Capitalism in Action
The nexus between politics and private oil empires in India is on full display. In a nation of 1.4 billion, only a few billionaires truly won.
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https://x.com/ilatif/status/1952503199811686441?s=46
