Pakistan stands among the world’s most vulnerable nations to the devastating effects of climate change. Despite contributing less than 1 per cent to global greenhouse gas emissions, it faces disproportionate consequences from a warming planet. The country is grappling with increasing environmental degradation, melting glaciers, erratic and extreme weather patterns, searing heatwaves, and recurring floods that collectively threaten its economy, agriculture, health, water resources, and infrastructure.
Over the past two decades, Pakistan has suffered economic losses estimated at nearly $100 billion due to climate-related disasters and shifts, an amount alarmingly close to its total external debt of approximately $130 billion. This figure reflects the cumulative cost of widespread destruction: the catastrophic floods of 2010, 2012, 2014, 2020, and especially 2022 displaced millions of people, claimed thousands of lives, and demolished vital infrastructure, including roads, bridges, homes, and agricultural land. In 2022 alone, over 33 million Pakistanis were affected, with damages pegged at around $30 billion.
The year 2025 is already being flagged for potential extreme flooding, which could cause widespread destruction, displace millions, and trigger outbreaks of waterborne diseases.
One of the most alarming indicators is the soaring temperature levels, especially in the provinces of Sindh and southern Punjab, where thermometers have recorded highs nearing 50°C. These unprecedented heat waves have spiked demand for cooling, overwhelming the national power grid and leading to frequent electricity shortages. Heat stress exacerbates public health challenges, contributing to heat-related illnesses, dehydration, and increased mortality, especially among vulnerable populations. Additionally, mental health repercussions linked to climate stressors are an emerging concern.
The country’s rainfall patterns have become erratic and unpredictable. Some years bring catastrophic floods, while others experience severe droughts. This inconsistency has devastating effects on agricultural productivity, which is the backbone of Pakistan’s economy and livelihood for a large segment of the population. Crop failures and reduced yields have led to food insecurity, diminished agricultural exports, and plunging incomes for millions of farmers. The nation’s food supply chain is under threat, with potential consequences including inflation and increased reliance on imports.
Glaciers in the Himalayan region, which feed Pakistan’s major rivers, are melting at an accelerated pace. Initially, this results in increased river flows, but this is a reprieve. Over time, the retreat of these glaciers threatens the availability of freshwater, placing further stress on the water supply for agriculture, domestic consumption, and industry. Moreover, the rapid melting raises the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and landslides, posing severe dangers to downstream communities.
Currently, climate change impacts approximately eight per cent of Pakistan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Without decisive and immediate intervention, this impact could balloon to 30% by 2050. Such a scenario would devastate critical sectors such as food production, energy, water resources, healthcare, education, and employment. The social fallout could be massive: escalating poverty rates, mass migrations from rural to urban areas, and destabilisation of communities and institutions.
The year 2025 is already being flagged for potential extreme flooding, which could cause widespread destruction, displace millions, and trigger outbreaks of waterborne diseases. Agricultural prospects are equally bleak, with forecasts predicting significant drops in the production of staple crops like wheat, cotton, and rice. This would not only undermine food security but also drive inflation, impacting the entire population, especially the poor.
Another grave concern is the vast quantity of water that Pakistan loses to the Arabian Sea annually due to insufficient water storage and management infrastructure. Estimates suggest that the country lets go of between 35 and 40 million acre-feet of water every year without utilising it effectively. If even a fraction-say 10 million acre-feet-of this water were captured and harnessed for hydropower, Pakistan could generate 15,000 to 20,000 megawatts of clean, renewable electricity annually. This would significantly ease the country’s persistent energy shortages and reduce reliance on costly fossil fuel imports that strain the economy and deepen the current account deficit.
Climate change is not merely an environmental issue for Pakistan; it is an existential threat to national security, economic stability, and social cohesion. The window to act is rapidly closing. Pakistan must adopt comprehensive climate policies that prioritise sustainable water and energy management, invest in resilient infrastructure, support farmers in adapting to changing conditions, and mobilise resources for disaster preparedness. International cooperation and financial support are also crucial, given Pakistan’s limited capacity to shoulder these challenges alone.
Failing to respond effectively will condemn Pakistan to a future where economic hardships, social unrest, and environmental disasters become the norm rather than the exception. The country must place climate action at the heart of its national agenda to safeguard its future and the well-being of its people.
The writer has been teaching at various universities for the past 12 years. He is also the Head of Research and Investigation at 365 News, works as Web Editor at Daily Times, and can be reached at [email protected].