While February 2019 may have only shattered India’s confidence in its multi-billion-dollar war machines, May 2025 has totally shattered its dream of becoming a regional hegemon. Moreover, the four-day war between India and Pakistan in May 2025 has proved how vulnerable the two nuclear neighbours are to each other’s military strategies and targeting philosophies, thus creating a scenario of a new Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).
While a Cold War dictum that the nuclear states do not go to war with each other due to the presence of undefendable nuclear weapons held its ground after the establishment of MAD, the same was not to happen in South Asia due to enduring rivalries between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, India and Pakistan.
The Cold War principles are valid only for rational people and not for the likes of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The Cold War principles are valid only for rational people and not for the likes of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who follows a hardline Hindutva Philosophy of his terror outfit, RSS. Modi has converted India into a Hindu State from a well-established secular state. Modi cannot be trusted with nuclear weapons because he has an outright conventional numerical superiority over Pakistan in all the domains. However, if it were not for the brilliance of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), India would not have sought a ceasefire within four days. Even after the ceasefire, Modi continues with the war mantra and has warned that the war is not over.
In the presence of an active dispute between the two neighbouring states, the possibility of military engagement remains with varying degrees of probability. The degree of probability will depend on the evolving international and regional environment, as well as the political will to resolve the dispute by military means of either state. Therefore, the possibility of yet another military engagement between India and Pakistan, like February 2019 and May 2025, exists with varying degrees of probability, thus challenging the efficacy of nuclear deterrence. Until the probabilities of military engagements are minimised, the possibilities of peace and stability in the region would remain elusive.
For some time, India had relegated Pakistan to a mediocre state that did not warrant much attention, instead concentrating more on its preparations to counter China’s rise. India was able to sell the challenge to China due to its proactive diplomacy and the influence of its diaspora. There is little doubt that the Indian diaspora has a highly influential presence worldwide, particularly in the United States and the United Kingdom.
India used the card intelligently and convinced the global leaders that Pakistan does not matter to it anymore. It can challenge China if political and military support is extended to it. The idea of handling China’s rise by India sounded great in the Western Capitals, and they readily extended unconditional political and military support to India.
India felt emboldened and embarked on an ambitious military modernisation plan that included a range of hardware from various suppliers. India acquired state-of-the-art air defence systems, including the S-400 from Russia, the Dassault Rafale fighter aircraft from France, and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), as well as the Heron Mk2 and Harop drones from Israel, among others. From the US, India had already concluded multiple foundational agreements, including the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) and the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA), which marked a significant step in strengthening military cooperation between the two countries, forming a “troika of foundational pacts.” The lengthy negotiations following the foundational agreements culminated in the signing of the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) between India and the United States on October 27, 2020. BECA assured India of real-time intelligence and targeting information.
With so many arms, ammunition, and equipment, India started to claim itself a regional power, relegated Pakistan to the minor opponent, and began to challenge China’s power in the region. China, on the other hand, disregarded India as a major opponent and eyed a shift in the international system from unipolarity to multipolarity, with the solid support of Russia, another global power that had consolidated its position.
The 4-Day War between India and Pakistan in May 2025, initiated by India and restrained yet well responded to by Pakistan, was not the first and not the last military engagement between the archrivals. It had all the ingredients to expand horizontally and vertically to be declared as an all-out war, which may have led to a disastrous nuclear exchange, no matter how limited in area and scope.
It is necessary to understand that both India and Pakistan have their faultlines and are vulnerable to each other’s acts that may cause harm to the so-called strategic stability that exists due to the presence of nuclear deterrence.
In my opinion, no war due to nuclear weapons may not be enough because no peace is also dangerous due to the prolongation of the unresolved disputes-more on this, next week, In Sha Allah.
The writer of this article has authored three international books: “Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan” “South Asia Needs Hybrid Peace” and “Understanding Sun Tzu and the Art of Hybrid War.”