According to provisional report of 2017 population census, presented to Council of Common Interests (CCI) on Friday, Pakistan’s current population stands at more than 207 million. This means that a staggering 75 million people were added to national population since the last census conducted in 1998. The economic Survey of Pakistan published in June this year had estimated the country’s population at 199 million which shows the increase has been more than earlier estimates.
The population growth rate which was 2.69 percent in 1981-1998 has slightly decreased to 2.40 percent between 1998-2017. This is still extremely high compared to other countries in South Asia and among developing economies.
Regionally, the growth rate has been more than the last census period in KP and Balochistan while it has dropped in Sindh and Punjab. Some of the 3.37 percent growth in population of Balochistan may be because of the inability of census teams to visit remote districts in 1998 but overall the growth in both the provinces show that better health and hygiene facilities have resulted in the decrease in mortality rate.
One hopes that present growth rates are closer to 1.86 percent estimated by the Economic Survey of Pakistan. Even in Sindh and Punjab the population growth is higher than other countries in the region. Population control needs to have more efficacy to keep the population growth at a manageable and sustainable number.
The provisional figures show slight changes in the provincial share of the country’s population which will have an impact on the distribution of seats in the National Assembly as well as in the provincial share in Federal receipts. Punjab is still home to the majority of Pakistanis but its share in population has decreased by 2.6 percentage points to less than 53 percent. Correspondingly, the population of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan has increased by one percentage point each. There was a slight increase in the total population of Islamabad and Federally Administered Tribal Areas too. Sindh’s total population remained almost the same.
Within the province, distribution of population has been a contentious and sensitive issue in Sindh and Balochistan.
In Sindh, the urban rural ratio is important because the urban centers of Karachi, Hyderabad and Sukkur are associated with Urdu speaking people while rural areas are associated with Sindhi speaking population.
Although the overall urbanization in Sindh has increased, and the majority of its population, 24.9 million out of 47 million, live in urban areas, the increase in population of Karachi and Hyderabad has been slower than presumed and far less than Lahore and other major cities of the country. It appears that the distribution of National and Sindh Assembly seats among Karachi and the rest of the province will not be subject to much change.
Karachi, Lahore, Faisalabad and Rawalpindi retained their position as the most populous cities in that order. However, Gujranwala and Peshawar with higher population growth have displaced Hyderabad and Multan from fifth and sixth position respectively. These figures may not truly reflect the population in cities as the suburbs developed in the outskirts of most of the cities in recent years but are still counted as rural areas.
The Census will have effect on distribution of seats in the National Assembly and distribution of federal revenue from taxes among provinces
The census will have an effect on distribution of seats in the National Assembly and distribution of federal revenue from taxes among provinces. Distribution of seats among provinces needs constitutional amendment.
Under article 51(5) of the constitution “seats in the National Assembly are to be allocated to each province, Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Federal Capital Territory in accordance with the last preceding census officially published”.
As per the provisional results, the number of seats allocated to provinces and federal territories given in article 51 of the constitution will have to be redistributed. KP and Balochistan will get more seats than those in Punjab.
It has put the government in a tricky situation. CCI has decided that census figures will be published only after being debated in the Inter-Provincial Coordination committee and approved by the Federal cabinet. This may take several months. On the other hand Election Commission has said it would be able to create allocations according to the new census if the census results are available by October this year.
Irrespective of redistribution of seats among provinces there are a lot of demographic changes within provinces too. The same would have to be reflected in fresh delimitation of constituencies of the national Assembly as well as in the respective provincial Assembly. Presently, the average National Assembly constituency represents about five hundred thousand people. That average will go beyond seven hundred and fifty thousand if the seats in the National Assembly remain the same.
While the constitution entails that seats are to be distributed in accordance with the last published census, there is no time period mentioned. This may create legal issues close to elections if the seats are not redistributed in accordance with the new census or some other constitutional remedy is not found. The political leadership will have to do the needful as early as possible to avoid any attempt to derail or postpone elections on these grounds.
The writer is a freelance columnist
Published in Daily Times, August 29th 2017.