With all the turmoil in the Middle East, Pakistan has remained a silent spectator. The question to be asked is who controls our foreign policy. Most people would say it is the GHQ that directly or indirectly controls our foreign policy. The blithering civilian idiots cannot be trusted. The army top brass has its own limitations and looks up to the US for directions since military supplies and, to some degree, funds come from them. Saudi Arabia is our master in more than one way. It is Pakistan’s spiritual home and oil depot. Largely, Pakistan’s Middle Eastern policy is dictated by Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia brokered a deal between Mian Nawaz Sharif and General Musharraf and when the former flew back to Pakistan, the Saudi leadership intervened directly in our internal affairs and whisked him off. The Arab Spring is a threat to Saudi Arabia’s worst form of dictatorship/kingship, where the House of Saud controls the kingdom through hundreds of princes. The Saudi king has marched his army into Bahrain to prop up the kingdom against the Arab Spring. The Saudi king knows that if the Arab Spring is successful in Bahrain, his kingdom would be next on the list. In the long term, the Saudi monarchy is doomed. Nevertheless, the Saudi kings and princes have directly interfered in Pakistan’s internal affairs. In the case of Mr Sharif’s exile and aborted return, the Saudi king openly interfered in support of the military dictator, General Musharraf. It is also said that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are funding Taliban and Sunni organisations. The Saudi hardliner Salafi brand of Islam is also promoted in Pakistan. The Iranian government’s counter-Saudi maneouvres are leading to sectarian clashes. Pakistan’s leadership is hostage to Saudi Arabian involvement in our internal and external affairs. The Saudis are hostage to the US because of oil.
Having just come back from Jordan, I feel not all seems to be well there. Corruption, acute water shortage and spiralling prices of basic goods may not keep away the Arab Spring for long.
The Middle East is also divided by a Shia-Sunni rift and ethnic/tribal divide. A Sunni minority is ruling in Syria and Bahrain. The rift is more serious in Saudi Arabia and Iraq where minority Shias or Sunnis are treated as second-class citizens. Governance through religion will create risky problems. Functioning democracy is the only option for the future of the Middle East.
Pakistan’s foreign policy regarding the US is complex. Musharraf give a blank cheque to the former President Bush following 9/11 to save his seat. The civilian government in 2008 continued Musharraf’s policy. The killing of Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, followed by an air attack on the Salala check post in North Waziristan Agency, jolted the civilian and military leadership. For Pakistan, US goodwill is crucial and a dire economic necessity.
The ire of people of Pakistan against the Americans was too difficult for the Pakistan army to handle, which normally determines our foreign policy. They passed the buck on to the civilian leadership. The decision was again too hot for the civilian leadership, caught in its own corruption scandals, and the issue was placed on the shoulders of parliament. In early April 2012, a joint sitting of the National Assembly and Senate debated on the revised recommendations of the Parliamentary Committee on National Security (PCNS) regarding future ties with the US. The core issue was the opening of the NATO supply routes, linked to stopping the drone attacks, with Maulana Fazlur Rehman and religious parties and groups taking a hardline stance. Cameron Munter, the US Ambassador to Pakistan, has wooed the Interior Minister Rehman Malik. Toned down recommendations were passed back to Prime Minister Gilani, who in turn absolved himself of any responsibility regarding future relations with the US. After the Chicago NATO meeting, US-Pakistan relations are at an all-time low. This will affect our Middle East policy.
Pakistan’s Middle East policy is based on Saudi desires, the threats of the US, and Pakistani needs. We need oil and our large workforce in the Middle East is dependent on Arab money.
(Concluded)
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