The wickedly innovative publicity stunts by upcoming politicians, commuting by public transport to taking oaths for public offices, cosmetic efforts by veteran political parties sacking lethargic legislatures from important ministries to manipulating clean-chits for their inhuman atrocities meted out to citizens, Indian politics is experiencing a tectonic shift featuring both conventional and contemporary factors. The extent to which these changes would influence the dynamics of political India is getting more intriguing by the day.
The dramatic decline of the Indian National Congress (INC) in the recently held Legislative Assembly elections in Delhi, Chhattisgarh, Madhaya Pradesh and Rajasthan came as no surprise. The writing was always on the wall. The grand old party won merely 126 seats of the total 589 seats from these four strategic states. Inflation, graft charges and apathy in governance haunts the Congress like never before. Interestingly for the Congress, the present political scenario is starkly similar to what it had been in the past decade. Apart from losing Assembly elections in at least four important states during the general elections’ calendar year, it has consecutively lost to the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janta Party’s (BJP) strongman Narendra Modi in the Gujarat Legislative Assembly elections preceding the 14th, 15th and now approaching 16th parliamentary Lok Sabha elections. Moreover, Congress leaders have been overshadowed by Modi’s charisma for quite some time now. Its ranks and allies had been too confused to repose faith on the then prime ministerial candidate Dr Manmohan Singh as they are now with Rahul Gandhi. The ‘NaMo’ factor has strongly demonstrated that Modi is the only alternative prime ministerial candidate of stature. Reflecting the same, his political discourses have attracted much larger crowds nationwide- including those from the strongholds of his rivals.
The ironical fact is, despite its rival’s thunderous political rhetoric, however, it has been the Congress that has had the last laugh and won the last three Lok Sabha elections. Political pundits rightfully perceive it would take some time for the BJP to gain the confidence and trust of the Indian electorate. The recent Delhi Assembly election is an evident eye-opener. Contrary to the commonly held perception, the Delhi Debacle has not only jolted the Congress out of its slumber, but has revealed the degree of public suspicion for the BJP. Even with three-terms of abysmal mismanagement and uneven governance of the National Capital Territory of India by the Congress, the long entrenched BJP could not garner an absolute majority.
The fall of the Congress government in Delhi was inevitable. But opting for a one-year old, inexperienced political outfit like the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) certainly reflects the level of public distrust and cynicism towards the BJP. To add insult to injury, the voters readily accepted the Congress once again with the AAP at the helm of affairs! On a larger scale, though the BJP desperately endeavours to capitalise on the nation’s anti-Congress sentiments, the public’s hesitance in voting for the BJP to control the centre cannot be dismissed or denied. It takes much more than the occasional stage-managed photo-ops by BJP leaders with a handful of Muslims to lure the community.
The expected NaMo-RaGa, pre-general elections duel has also taken a critical turn with the exciting rise of the AAP that has stumped political analysts and politicians alike. How quickly our politicians can change colours is mind-boggling. Conventional, political mud sledging has suddenly been replaced with participatory democracy. Established political entities are blatantly replicating the successful recipe of the AAP by candidly reaching out to people by public consultations on what should be adopted in their election manifestos. Addressing real issues rather than surreal ones is suddenly more audible in this election campaign. Minority communities are now having their long-pending demands acknowledged by law-makers who have exploited the carrot and stick ploy to the hilt, while delaying grants to Waqf boards and holding back land approvals. Communalism, commissions and committees are now being swapped by serious commitment to social justice, development and security.
Even if the AAP does not come to power at the centre, (it would be unrealistic to predict so) still it has done its bit by making both the political class and the electorate conscious of their predicament. Post-elections, it will be interesting to observe how the mainstream political parties, whether they succeed in forming the government at the centre or sit in the opposition, will deal with an unconventional, watchdog of a party like the AAP. The party has already demonstrated how it is hell-bent upon publicly tearing apart any kind of apathy in policy or polity.
The author is a Mumbai-based socio-political commentator on South Asian issues