US President Barack Obama’s arrival in India in connection with the Republic Day celebrations is a big development. In September 2014, the Indian Prime Minister, Mr Narender Modi, finally made it to the US in quest of better ties (he was previously on a persona non grata list). The agenda of the current Obama-Modi meeting is energy, defence, trade, investment, and climate change. The US President is not to visit Pakistan during this tour, to Islamabad’s chagrin. A triangular conundrum exists among Pakistan, India and the US. It is the policy of the US to build friendly relations with both India and Pakistan, and not with one at the expense of the other. During the ongoing recession, the huge potential of the Indian economy has become vital for the US. India is potentially a very big market for the US. The US economy could be lifted out of the doldrums through the sale of weapons to India. A civil nuclear deal between both countries first mooted by Obama’s predecessor George Bush, is likely to be finalised during the current tour. On India’s part, New Delhi wishes to be dealt with on an equal footing. The US considers India a possible counterweight to China in the region. With regards to Pakistan, the trust deficit between the US and Pakistan due the duality of policies of Pakistan in the past, which still causes suspicion, despite a belated crackdown against militants, stated now to be irrespective of ‘good’ Taliban and ‘bad’ Taliban and their supporters. The Pakistan government is still unsure how to deal with elements that support the Taliban. The US knows the difficulties of Pakistan and it has understood terrorism cannot be eliminated through a military crackdown only. That is why Washington has not discontinued its aid programme for Islamabad despite hostile opposition from the Republican-dominated US Congress. The other factor behind this love-hate relationship is the strategic importance of Pakistan in the region. The US is still dependent on Pakistan’s political, diplomatic and military help to deal with the situation in Afghanistan post-withdrawal.
Predicting the outcome of the present tour of the US President to India is difficult. However, the interests of all three stakeholders in the region are interconnected. In line with the policy of the US towards Pakistan of repeating the mantra of ‘do more’, it should also urge India to defuse tensions on the border. Both India and Pakistan should work on improving mutual ties. They should start a meaningful dialogue for regional stability. The US should review its policy of trade with India and aid for Pakistan. In order to normalize ties, both India and Pakistan should resolve all key issues including the main issue of Kashmir for normalcy in the region and economic development of both rival states. *