Much ado has been made in Pakistan and elsewhere about the recent visit of US President Barack Obama to India, and for good reasons. Apart from the by now famous hug between Modi and Obama, a number of agreements for cooperation in nuclear trade, defence, security, space and other advanced technologies were signed during the visit, and there is already talk about paving the way for a permanent Indian seat at the UN Security Council (UNSC). During the visit, painstakingly planned events highlighting Indian nationalism and culture were arranged to provide powerful visuals to feed the media frenzy. The trip had to be cut short due to the demise of the Saudi king but, by all means, the trip was hailed as the beginning of a new era of Indian dominance in the region.
The Pakistani response to these developments has, if anything, been dull and predictable. Painting over the fact that the US president is yet to visit us is quite painful in such circumstances, and we have been reduced to shrugging the entire episode out of memory through token announcements about our untapped potential and stance on the Kashmir issue. However, amidst the cacophony of showboating, rightful concerns about a rekindled nuclear arms race in South Asia have been raised and they must be part of any future agenda that is to be discussed between the two South Asian countries.
Replicating the Indian performance in the economic and political sectors is going to be difficult for us for the foreseeable future. At a time when predictions are being made about the Indian economy’s rate of growth surpassing even that of the Chinese economy, we are smack in the middle of a vicious insurgency, shameless governance failures and exhausting service delivery breakdowns on a massive scale. In fact, any comparisons with India should now be taken with a pinch of salt, or three. However, all that notwithstanding, there are still a few reasons why Pakistan should not read too much between the lines of the recent US-Indian accords. The following paragraphs will elaborate on a few reasons towards this end but they must not be taken as excuses for delaying introspection under any circumstance whatsoever.
Firstly, at their core, the recent agreements with India are geared towards increasing economic partnerships, which, in turn, are supposed to lead towards mutual policy convergence. However, already concerns have been shown about the Indian nuclear programme and its impact on the populace. Apprehensions about the transparency of such programmes and their ultimate effect on the power balance in South Asia are also making the rounds, and they will have to be addressed head on. Additionally, as pointed out by the US president himself, India still has miles to go in terms of social justice and equality before it can emerge as a superpower in a liberal-democratic mould.
Secondly, long gone are the days when economic might directly translated into political clout in international politics. The correlation still runs deep for sure, but the causality has been bruised. As an example, consider how the economic rise of the Scandinavian countries has not increased their political stature in the international system a terrible lot. The entrenched US presence in international institutions runs deep and certainly cannot be undone without a systemic overhaul on account of other countries.
Thirdly, as much as Obama would like to believe otherwise, his domestic position is significantly weaker than his stature abroad. The president has remarkably been able to bring the US economy out of a deep slump but it has come at a cost. Consequently, his party has suffered heavy losses in the recent electoral cycles and the Republicans have been able to strengthen their position. Moreover, the battle lines between the Democrats and Republicans have been drawn clearer than ever and, with the presidential term ending next year, it will be tough to follow up on promises made during the recent visit.
Fourthly, the US tilt towards India comes after the realisation of increased Chinese and Russian clout in the region and, to this end, Pakistan has wasted no time in making a dash towards those two alternatives. Pakistan played host to a Russian military delegation not that long ago and the recent meetings of the Pakistani army chief with the Chinese top brass did shift the attention away from the Obama visit for a while.
Furthermore, owing to historical and territorial reasons, any security regime focused towards stabilising South Asia will have to have a Pakistani presence as well. However, while this aspect may be comforting, it should never be taken as reason for complacency. Previously, Pakistan had been negotiating its seat at the table with a gun to its own head but we can no longer continue to do so. As the US shifts its focus away from Afghanistan and towards Islamic State (IS), Pakistan would be well advised to think long and hard about its own survival and learn to play along with the other regional stakeholders towards increased cooperation.
The author is a freelance columnist with degrees in political science and international relations