Things are heating up on the western front as the situation in Afghanistan gets more and more volatile with each passing day. After an intense winter that saw the militants retreat and lose much ground to the Afghan security forces, the return of summer — and thus the fighting season — has seen militants return to their strongholds and launch intense attacks against the Afghan government of President Ashraf Ghani and his chief executive officer, Dr Abdullah.
The Afghan president has been working hard towards reviving some semblance of normalcy in Afghanistan since coming to power but, so far, his efforts have been thwarted owing to internecine conflicts among his own supporters. Furthermore, the old warlords have also not been too keen to pay heed to his call for peace and reconciliation, and, resultantly, he has been left largely to his own devices in trying to bring peace back to Afghanistan. However, he has been smartly engaging all regional stakeholders in this process without embroiling his own government too much in regional rivalries, and some of his efforts are starting to bear fruit.
One positive result from such efforts was the signing of a landmark deal between the Pakistani and Afghan intelligence agencies ensuring intelligence sharing between the two and joint operations to restrict militants. Additionally, this past week, Pakistan brokered direct talks between the Afghan Taliban and representatives of the Afghan government in the hill station resort of Murree. As is evident, Pakistan still holds sway over the old mujahideen through intricate networks of patronage and has been instrumental in bringing stakeholders to the negotiating table time and time again. This time though, the talks are even more significant due to the presence of China and the US as observers.
So, in an ironical twist, the country that has been unable to reign in the militants in its own territory has been successfully engaging fighters from another country. Over the past few years, many have tried to limit Pakistan’s influence over Afghanistan but the truth is that, for better or for worse, Pakistan’s hold over its western neighbour cannot be underestimated. There is now a global consensus that any peace deal in Afghanistan would have to have Pakistan’s blessing as well, and so it is in this vein that President Ghani finds himself increasingly softening his stance towards keeping Pakistan on board.
But, progress in Afghanistan inevitably means taking two steps back with every stride forward. In the backdrop of renewed state relations, it still remains to be seen how serious the Afghan Taliban are in peace accords with the Afghan government, especially since in-fighting among different insurgent groups has meant the lack of a unified front. The beginning of summer in Afghanistan has seen pitched battles being carried out against elements of the Afghan security apparatus. Especially noteworthy in this regard was the brutal, planned attack on the Afghan parliament on the eve of the vote of confidence ceremony for the defence minister designate, Stanikzai, which left the improved relations between the Afghan and Pakistani security agencies in the lurch.
Another aspect of the militant landscape in Afghanistan that cannot be ignored is that the old warlords will try to reclaim lost ground in the coming months. This has resulted in the outbreak of a deadly struggle for power in the country, which could potentially lead to another debilitating civil war. Large swathes of territory in the north and south of Afghanistan are now in the hands of different factions slugging it out for supremacy and observers are concerned that even elements of the Afghan government may end up taking sides in these battles as well. Key Afghan figures, such as the likes of the Balkh governor, Atta Muhammad Noor, and Herat strongman Ismail Khan might end up waving opposing flags at a time when they should be under one united banner, a contingency that could prove to be extremely destructive for the current Afghan setup.
But an even bigger threat than Taliban infighting and the possibility of another brutal civil war is that of the ascendancy of Islamic State (IS) in Afghanistan. Reportedly, decades of fighting have left the guerrilla fighters weary and they are finding the old causes increasingly difficult to support. In such difficult times, when resources are limited and spirits are waning, IS’s increased presence in the region has given a boost to militancy yet again. Militants are now looking towards the self-styled caliph, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, as their saviour and are distancing themselves from the seemingly compromised leader of the old guard, Mullah Omer.
Coming from two different theological schools of thought, the Taliban and IS are sworn enemies, and the Afghan Taliban are not taking the possibility of an IS controlled Afghanistan lightly, especially since this would mean the end of their reign. Perhaps it is a sign of how desperate things are at the moment within the Taliban camp that they are looking to the outside world for sources of support and are willing to even negotiate their withdrawal from active battle just to retain their legitimacy. The death of Hafiz Saeed, the IS supremo for the Khorasan region, in a drone strike last week means that the Taliban are not immune to the idea of cooperating with their enemies if eliminating an even bigger threat is on the cards.
In this way, the case of Afghanistan is a difficult one since the writ of the government — or anything remotely resembling one — is practically non-existent. While the rest of the world has moved on, Afghanistan is still effectively stuck in the 19th century with no socio-political channels for debate and discussion, an unenviable infrastructure and dismal service delivery.
President Ashraf Ghani has a monumental task ahead of him during his remaining tenure where he not only has to bring warring factions to the negotiating table, but also protect against the threat of IS making inroads into Afghanistan. In this scenario, Pakistan would be well advised to seek a long-term, sustainable solution to Afghanistan’s woes by wielding its influence over the Afghan Taliban to end their insurgency against the state and contribute towards domestic stability and security, starting from their own areas of influence.
But seeing the historical patterns of our engagement with Afghanistan, this is easier said than done. Pakistan is struggling to end the militant threat within and it seems less likely that it would be able to broker a peace deal in Afghanistan. Additionally, a rejuvenated rivalry with India could translate into Pakistan regressing back into old patterns and seeking non-existent answers in ‘strategic depth’. It is all the more crucial now that short-term expediency not take precedence over broader issues that will end up affecting us all since the fate of South Asia is intricately intertwined with that of Afghanistan.
The author is a freelance columnist with degrees in political science and international relations