Death has a way of throwing the most intricately plotted plans out of the window. Forever the kryptonite to human ambition, its finality is unmatched by anything else in our conception. But some deaths, of course, are more final than others. No human can live forever but, in some cases, immortality is within reach. Such was the case with Mullah Omer, whose many deaths and resurrections are legion, and are part of the mind-games we have come to expect from the most deceptive corners of the Afghan militancy. All these years, keeping the man alive, or at least the notion of him, has been crucial to the cause of the Afghan Taliban. After all, Mullah Omer was the de-facto ruler of Afghanistan in the 1990s and it was under his banner that the Taliban regrouped after being browbeaten by the US-led NATO forces in the arid Afghan landscape.
And so it was that all doubts and rumours surrounding the Mullah’s death had to be quashed almost instantly. His image was to be kept immortal for all times to come, larger than life in every sense of the word. But, as is the way of the world, the most guarded secrets will sooner or later be spilled into the cosmic ether, and it has now been confirmed that Mullah Omer, the leader of the Afghan Taliban, is no more. He reportedly died some two years ago, in ill-health, and no one, not even his family, was made aware of his demise. Such was the shroud of secrecy around the man that fake messages of support for the cause of the Taliban, the latest one as recent as last month, were regularly circulated a long time after Mullah Omer had passed away.
Times like these are ripe for internecine conflict to rear its ugly head within guerrilla movements and, in order to protect against that possibility, the Taliban have named Mullah Akhtar Mansour as Mullah Omer’s successor. But it seems to have done precious little so far in soothing ruffled feathers. Mansour is no Omer and just days after his succession many from within the Taliban ranks are at least publicly refraining from showing him any support whatsoever, if not blaming him outright for murdering Mullah Omer. The political office of the Afghan Taliban based in Qatar has publicly voiced concerns over the legitimacy of Mansour, and splinter factions among the Afghan Taliban, including the remaining family of Mullah Omer, are not too keen on Mansour’s ascendancy either.
If the Taliban were eager to clear any misconceptions over the death of their leader and move away from uncertainty, the rumours about the death of Jalaluddin Haqqani, the founder and leader of the fearsome Haqqani network, did not help that cause too much. The reports remain unconfirmed as of now but even though the rumours may be a bit exaggerated, the senior Haqqani’s role in the operational activities of the group has been circumspect in light of his failing health for some time now.
Contemporary times are a test for Afghan militancy in terms of maintaining its longevity and sense of purpose by resolving succession disputes. History, however, suggests that ideological movements flail away when their ideologues pass away. A recent example of this is that of al Qaeda, the vicious group that lost its bearing after much of its leadership was either killed or captured and nearly completely broke down after Osama bin Laden was killed in the Abbotabad raid in May 2011. There are, on the other hand, exceptions to this phenomenon as well, where we see ensembles like Islamic State (IS) moving away from centralised operational command and instead acting like a conglomerate of smaller groups acting on their own in their respective territories.
If things were previously looking uncertain in Afghanistan, the current situation remains unmatched in terms of volatility in recent times. With the changeover in Taliban ranks, this past week marked the most fragile of times for the militancy movement in Afghanistan, and there are possibilities of a brutal civil war erupting just west of the Durand Line. The battle for supremacy in Afghanistan will only leave a dangerous vacuum, which is likely to be filled by IS. Already, Kunar and Nangarhar provinces in Afghanistan are under effective IS control and with further territory falling under brutal in-fighting, IS will only consolidate its hold further in the region.
Additionally, questions remain over the fate of the peace talks that have been delayed indefinitely in the wake of the shuffle in the Afghan Taliban’s ranks. Postponing the talks was the only logical next step since whatever personnel end up sitting at the table to represent the Afghan Taliban have to have complete support among their own ranks, a contingency that is yet to materialise in the case of Mullah Akhtar Mansour.
Furthermore, it remains to be seen how effective a role Pakistan can play in the peace process now since a little adaptation to the changing circumstances is necessary. The old paradigm of strategic depth via proxies is sure to come under introspection now, especially since on the domestic front at least Pakistan seems to be moving away from false dichotomies of good and bad militants. The gains made in successful military operations in North Waziristan are being consolidated in hotbeds like Karachi as well and, more recently, the demise of Malik Ishaq, leader of the notorious Sunni outfit Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), might materialise in the elimination of militant safe havens from South Punjab as well.
The simple truth of the matter is that in case of the Afghan Taliban, the tide is turning and it brings with it some ominous bearings. The movement’s morale has been badly affected, an outcome that is quite favourable for the Afghan political setup. But this situation is unlikely to continue for a long time, especially since the named replacements for the fallen are not known for their pacifist tendencies. It is inevitable that the Taliban will end up being important players towards peace in Afghanistan and if peace is the ultimate goal then the new Taliban leadership will have to be carefully approached so that consolidated peace deals can be made instead of leaving the vast territory in the clutches of the law of the jungle.
The author is a freelance columnist with degrees in political science and international relations