Richard Olson, the former US envoy to Pakistan, through the platform of the US Institute of Peace, has advised the Biden administration to productively work with Pakistan beyond the peaks of enthusiasm and depths of cynicism. The fact remains that Olson’s thinking seems to fit the very interests of diplomatic pragmatism that the US State Department cannot ignore while envisaging Washington’s future relations with Islamabad. There are some basic dynamics that warrant the justification that the Biden administration must take into consideration.
Pakistan’s geostrategic position: Pakistan’s unique longitudinal geography allows it to wash its shores with the Arabian Sea at its south, and to shake hands with Central Asia at its north. Pakistan’s historical and geographical contingency with Afghanistan has allowed it to support the brotherly country in its fight for freedom from Russian and American occupations; our neighbouring with Iran in a unique way that is different from its Arab neighbours to its west, allows us to have a relatively unbiased and even normative relation with it. At the northeastern and eastern proximities, Pakistan is affiliated with both China and India — two states with the world’s biggest populations and both harbouring regional ambitions.
Role of Pakistan Army in the WOT: This is an irrefutable truth that In 19 years of the US war on Terrorism in Afghanistan, Pakistan army has played an instrumental role in terminating the Al-Qaeda networks. There is circumstantial evidence that Pakistan plays a role in limiting the scale and scope of Afghan Taliban attacks against U.S. soldiers and other personnel in Afghanistan. Evident since 2001, Pakistan’s role seems especially important since 2015. Senior American officials and leaders have gone quite far to praise the Pakistani military’s fight against terror and the capture of senior al Qaeda leadership. General Tommy Franks talks about the key air and land corridors that were provided by the Pakistan military that led to the first push into Afghanistan to fight Al Qaeda.
Currently, Pakistan is being forced to reevaluate how it engages its traditional partners on the defining feature of its foreign relations with many countries: competition with India
The US-Pak cooperation legacy vs current reality: This is an irrefutable reality that the U.S.-Pakistan counterterrorism partnership has shown a major value in combating terrorism—and this should be a value that continues if even a strained counterterrorism partnership remains in place. In many US policy quarters, the Afghan Taliban is a symptom of the misalignment syndrome in U.S. and Pakistan security strategies for Afghanistan and the wider South Asia region. There remains, however, an important basis of mutual agreement on counterterrorism collaboration between the United States and Pakistan that has been lost in the growing recriminations between the two over the Afghan Taliban and the HQN. Now, there is a justified need that the US must reassess the role that New Delhi is playing in Afghanistan. Pakistan cannot compromise on its security, and cannot tolerate any means that deter our security paradigm vis-à-vis India. US’ any past do more mantra will not be acceptable to Pakistan.
India- Pakistan situation & Kashmir: Terrorism has become a global menace and therefore no country should harbor terrorists. The war on terrorism should become a common global goal. For the sake of peace and stability in the region, the Biden administration must play its role as a peace mediator in the region. India has been involved in making terrorism in Pakistan. The UN has acknowledged the ongoing efforts of the Pakistan government against elements involved in terrorist activities while noting that the threat from the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) had resulted in over “100 cross-border attacks within three months last year”, in a new report, it emerged on Sunday. The report cautioned that the aforementioned reunification “enhanced the threat of terrorism” to not only Pakistan but the entire region since it has “increased the strength of [the] TTP and resulted in a sharp increase in attacks”. US needs to impartially review the Indian malicious role in destablising Pakistan from the Afghan soil. Undeniably, the South Asian security paradigm is changing. Currently, Pakistan is being forced to reevaluate how it engages its traditional partners on the defining feature of its foreign relations with many countries: competition with India. And obviously, the current Kashmir situation cannot be ignored as it is a nuclear flash point between India and Pakistan.
Pakistan & the Taliban peace talks: Pakistan’s role in the Afghan Peace Process between the US, the Afghan government and the Taliban is very crucial. But make no mistake any future of peace and security in the region is dependent upon the Afghan peace stake holders –choose to play in the Afghan Peace Process – will they hamper or drive the peace process forward. The Biden administration has recently announced the “the intention to review” the US-Taliban peace deal reached in February 2020. President Biden’s security advisor, Jack Sullivan, is said to have confirmed this review with Afghan officials, in light of the continued targeted assassinations and attacks in Afghanistan. The intra-Afghan talks held in Qatar have made little progress due to the continued violence, ideological differences, and increasing mistrust between the parties.
So far, any peace Strategy’s significance lies in the fact that it is an instrument of consensus on an issue where consensus has been difficult to achieve on a regional and global level. Nato’s Secretary General Stoltenberg’s current remarks that Nato forces will stay in Afghanistan beyond May 2021 may further intensify the situation as the Taliban vow for an early withdrawal of Nato’s troops from Afghanistan. It needs no explanation that Pakistan commands leverage on the Afghan Taliban. Pakistan has been playing the role of a facilitator in the Afghan Peace Process and a stable Afghanistan. Any future peace talks with the Taliban cannot be possible without gaining assistance from Pakistan.
What should be the US future strategy: Pragmatism advocates that the United States should not miss an opportunity to re-engage Pakistan productively. It is prudent to focus on the more urgent need to foster peace in Afghanistan. But the conditions on the ground in Afghanistan, as well as elsewhere in the region, must be in place to sustain peace beyond diplomatic negotiations and deals among political elites. If the United States continues to tether the stability of the region to Pakistan, then it must make far more significant investments in the country beyond security interests. As the Biden administration rolls out its national security strategy, it should place a new Pakistan policy within its broader strategic interests in West Asia based on bilateralism–endorsing diplomatic engagement with Islamabad that builds avenues of cooperation on geopolitical realities and economic opportunities.
The writer is an independent ‘IR’ researcher and international law analyst based in Pakistan