Second major plank (the first was discussed in the article published yesterday) of Imran Khan’s politics is that the action against the militant Islamic groups by the military should be stopped immediately and peace talks should be initiated. Many analysts who have followed the Jihadi organisations and rise of religious extremism in Pakistan have explained that the terrorist activities by these outfits will not go away if the state would lay down arms, instead of the other way around. The whole issue is much more complex than Imran Khan tries to put it.
His contention is that terrorism in Pakistan will end once the US and its allies leave Afghanistan. But what he forgets is that it has existed even before 2011 as various Jihadi forces were nurtured by our establishment in Pakistan. Then there is the whole Al Qaeda inspired ideological basis of Jihadi organisations which aims at establishing an Islamic Caliphate on the pattern of Taliban’s government that was thrown out of Afghanistan by the US and the anti-Taliban forces in 2001. A trailer of this was seen in Swat where when Islamists were given a chance, they wanted not only to establish a parallel system based on their brand of Sharia, but expand it to the rest of Pakistan. People of Swat celebrated their liberation. The army has to still protect the people from Mullah Fazlullah who recently attacked a check post in Chitral to enter in the peaceful valley.
After the withdrawal of the US forces, Afghanistan is likely to drift into a worse turmoil, yes worse than what it is facing at present. The success of Taliban in Afghanistan would be dangerous for the Pakistani moderate society as it will give a boost to the Jihadis. At the same time there is danger of both Pakistan and India competing with each other in Afghanistan for influence. Imran’s policy of appeasing Taliban is thus going to disappoint the urban youth and the pop-band lovers. It is also contradictory to his recent statement that he will not allow Pakistan’s land to be used by the terrorists against any neighbours.
There are a number of other factors which are ignored in Imran’s narrative. Most probably it is the influence of the ex-Jamaat leaders and political workers who joined him when PTI was launched. That was before the middle class politically-uneducated urban youth and so-called political heavy-weights started pinning hope on him.
Imran Khan has been soft-peddling against the real rulers of Pakistan – the establishment. Many commentators have alleged that he is being presented as an alternate of Nawaz Sharif’s PML. Whether PTI’s rise is supported by the establishment or not, the Lahore performance of party shows that he would be an ‘MQM’ to PML (N) in urban Punjab, as MQM is to PPP in Sindh. When MQM was rising in mid 1980s the establishment wanted to use it to neutralise PPP and nationalist Sindhi forces. But MQM developed a mind of its own as it got power in urban Sindh. This is so typical of all such forces that are initially nurtured by the establishment. Jihadi outfits that have challenged the army are point in case.
Now I would like to share three anecdotes in their chronological order for the benefit of some friends who ask will Imran Khan bring a change. When asked whether they would be willing to support Imran’s Islamists stance as people who believe in liberal secular politics, generally their reply was that they would be able to bring him closer to their thinking. This reminded me that when Bhutto took-over PPP’s leadership from J. A. Rahim and Mubashar Hasan who were in the initial stage of making a left-of-the-center some leading landlords of Sindh and Punjab started joining him. A leading leftist student leader of Karachi told us that Bhutto is a good man and the leftists should support him to marginalize the feudal lords. But at the end of the day we saw that Bhutto marginalized the leftists founding members like J. A. Rahim, Mubashar Hasan and Meraj Mohammed Khan. By 1977 Bhutto had all the big landlords with him and he was out to appease religious parties. He declared Ahmadis a minority, Friday as the weekly holiday and banned liquor. And religious slogans were splashed at the Nishtar Park election meeting in replacing the leftist slogans of the 1970 rally.
Cut and fast-forward to Musharraf period before the 2002 elections. A banker friend asked me to join him for a lunch at PC Karachi to meet Imran Khan. Elated Imran narrated in detail his exclusive lunch with President General Musharraf. He said that Musharraf has told him: “you and I can work together. Musharraf said the same thing to Chaudhry Shujaat and this time meant business.
He is a victim of believing in his own propaganda, which is why he said that ten million dollars will flow in to the country and also that soon we will find the oil
Next a Sindhi ex-PPP leader, who is a nationalist at heart, invited me to meet Imran at his house where he had some Sindhi politicians also. This was a larger crowd. After listening to Imran’s view the Sindhi leaders, who are provincial assembly members also, asked a simple power politics question: Will the establishment support his party? Imran did not rule it out. However, recently when pressed by the CNN and PML allegations that he is the establishment’s man, Imran said that if elected to power he will dictate the policies and the military establishment would be kept out of politics. He thinks that high moral ground of an elected government can counter any interference by agencies in making policies. Is it that simple in a country where war economy has created a strong vested interest lobby?
A senior analyst who specializes on the military in Pakistan view is that the senior members of the establishment are divided between liberal nationalists who are pro-US as they want it’s financial and technically sophisticated weapons, the other group is of conservative nationalists which is inclined towards China as an alternate source and then there is a section that is fundamentalists and wants to break all ties with the US. This I think explains Imran’s stance on Afghanistan which is anti-US but he is favourably inclined towards China. The establishment it seems is preparing a political ally for post 2014 years when the US forces will withdraw from Afghanistan. The ally — who can also keep the fundamentalists happy.
But his politics and views will get diluted during the course of the next one year to the general elections. The dilution of his hard views against the corrupt politicians has already started as many PPP and PML (Q) disgruntled elements are being welcomed in his party. At the same time it is quite safe to forecast that all future civilian governments are going to be coalition governments – meaning a lot has to be given on the table while cobbling an alliance.
Imran’s PTI may change the balance of political power in Punjab but that he can bring any change in the power politics between the establishment and politicians who are elected in a democratic dispensation is a big question mark. As an Islamist party, he will also have to show whether he will follow the Justice Party of Turkey course or just another faction of Jamaat-e-Islami with pop music and digital media yuppies in his rallies as a point of difference. He says he is a follower of Allama Iqbal, but little does he realise that pan-Islamism of the poet is a thing of the past with no relevance to the present 21st century world. Pan-Islamic views are a mirage, which can be confirmed by the recent narrative in the case of US-led change on the policy of Jerusalem and also regarding the situation in Kashmir.
Those who are at a quandary regarding policies of PTI and wonder that this party is competent to run the country should have known in the first place that the leader of the party is confused. He thought that because he is an honest man, he can make a difference, but he can’t because the system is endemic. He is a victim of believing in his own propaganda, which is why he said that ten million dollars will flow in to the country and also that soon we will find the oil.
He does not understand that all oil explorationsare not commercially viable. He and his cabinet were pinning a lot of hope on the offshore Exxon Caltex oil exploration, but that failed.
(Concluded)
The writer is freelance journalist and author