It is a well known fact that since 1947 theMuslim majority,former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir is an outstanding dispute between Pakistan and India. It is also a well established fact that Pakistan and India had fought a first war over Jammu and Kashmir in 1947-1948 because on 27 October 1947, India got theso-called Instrument of Accession signed (under duress) from the Hindu Raja Hari Singh of the state of Jammu and Kashmir, and sent its armed forces in the state. Indian army had captured a major part of the statetill Pakistan’s armed forces countered Indian aggression.
The world also knows that on India’s request in 1948, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) had passed resolutions in 1948-1949, asking Pakistan and India for a ceasefire and that the Jammu and Kashmir dispute would be resolved through a plebiscite. And that it would be done with Kashmiris’assent, whether they wanted to join Pakistan or India. The world also is in full knowledge that while Pakistan fully cooperated with the UNSC, to date, India has failed all the UNSC effortsto hold a plebiscite in Jammu and Kashmir.
Consequently, since 1989, the people of Jammu and Kashmir have had their peaceful freedom struggle, which India is trying to crush by deploying more than 700,000 security forces and committing countless human rights violations and atrocities. During many rounds of bilateral talks held between Pakistan and India in the past, while India discussed other bilateral issues, itwas not ready to touch the Jammu and Kashmir dispute. By refusing to discuss the Jammu and Kashmir dispute, India has violated the UNSC resolutions as well as the bilateral agreements.
Modi hopes that in view of their strategic and commercial interests linked with India, no major power will compel India, through a UNSC action or individually, to revert to the pre-5 August 2019 status of Jammu and Kashmir
In view of India’s refusal to hold discussions on Kashmir, Pakistan started asking for foreign mediation on Kashmir.Previously, there have been some attempts and offers of mediation, which India had accepted. Temporary deescalation of tensions took place between Pakistan and India through mediation by the former USSR in 1965 and by the US in 1990s.
In August 2019, the Modi-led BJP government in Indiaadopted a fascist policy of totally negating the UNSC resolutions on Kashmir and the bilateral agreements by declaring that Jammu and Kashmir was India’s internal matter. To implement its policy, the Indian governmentabrogated Articles 35 A and 370 of India’s constitution, took away the autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir, and divided the state into two Union territories to be directly administered by the federal government. To preempt Kashmiris’ reaction, India hasalso clamped curfew and telephone and internet blockade in the Kashmir valley for the last 190 days. It has also apprehended and jailed most of the Kashmiri leaders and young men.
As a consequence of Pakistan’s diplomatic efforts, mediation offers have been made by the US President Donald Trump more than thrice in 2019 and 2020. The UN Secretary General has also offered to mediateduring hisvisit to Pakistan on 15 February 2020. These mediation offers have been outrightly rejected by India by stating that Jammu and Kashmir is its internal matter and that only India will control the situation in Jammu and Kashmir.
The Modi-led BJP government is rejecting these mediation efforts to grab the occupied Jammu and Kashmir permanently. In this regard, Modi hopes that in view of their strategic and commercial interests linked with India, no major power will compel India, through a UNSC action or individually, to revert to the pre-5 August 2019 status of Jammu and Kashmir.And that ultimately, the world will reconcile with India’s latest policy that Jammu and Kashmir is its integral part and hence an internal matter, and then India will also start to claim the Azad Jammu and Kashmir.
During the last two meetings of the UNSC, requested by Pakistan and China in the last six months-althoughthe Jammu and Kashmir situation was discussed-permanentmembers excluding China did not take any initiative of passing a resolution to ask India to lift the curfew and communication restrictions on Kashmiris and for resolving the Kashmir dispute through a dialogue with Pakistan.This indicates that they aremore inclined to advance their interestslinked with India rather than doing justice to the people of Jammu and Kashmir.
If this attitude of the world powers prevails for long, India will continue to take further measures to integrate the Jammu and Kashmir with it permanently, bycarrying on the genocide ofKashmiris’to crush their freedom struggle for their right to self-determination.But such a situation is not going to bring peace in South Asia. Instead, Kashmiris will be further alienated from India and their freedom struggle will further intensify. That will increase tension in the Indian-occupied Jammu and Kashmir and across the Line of Control, whichcouldultimatelyresult in a dangerous war between Pakistan and India.
The writer is a former research fellow of Islamabad Policy Research Institute, Islamabad and Senior Research Fellow of Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad