Of late, the United States has virtually declared war on Iran. The first step was the withdrawal from the nuclear accord, signed in 2015, under Barack Obama’s presidency. Even though, by most accounts, Iran was following the provisions of the agreement.
President Trump, however, felt that it was a terrible deal. For instance, it didn’t put curbs on Iran’s missile capability and its alleged encouragement of and involvement in terrorism. In short, though it might not have been said in so many words, Iran was considered an outlaw state and would have to be dealt with as such.
Apart from its nuclear and missile capability, it was said to be destabilizing the region in view of its connection with the Hezbollah movement, its involvement in Syria, its connection with the Houthi militia in Yemen and, hostility to Israel. In other words, Iran is identified as a threat to all US allies and interests in the Middle East, like Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf states.
Because of this presumed threat, the US decided to pre-empt any potential/real hostile activity from Iran by sending an aircraft carrier with bombers to warn off Tehran. As John Bolton, Trump’s National Security Advisor, announced that “due to troubling and escalatory indications and warnings”, the US had dispatched an aircraft carrier strike group and a bomber task force to the Persian Gulf “to send a clear and unmistakable message to the Iranian regime that any attack on the United States interests or on those of our allies would be met with unrelenting force.”
And it was revealed that the US might deploy more military force. According to US media reports, “The military capabilities being discussed [for deployment] includes sending additional ballistic missile defense systems, Tomahawk cruise missiles on submarines and surface ships with land attack capabilities for striking at a long range.” Besides, there is talk of deploying 10,000 additional troops to the region.
Iran is left to deal with Trump’s unpredictability, which, even without any actual attack, is terribly disruptive
And not to leave any doubt about the US’ resolve, Trump conveyed via twitter (his favorite mode of communication] that, “If Iran wants to fight, that will be the official end of Iran. Never threaten the United States again”, without clarifying the precise nature of the Iranian threat.
It looked more like that Trump was spoiling for a fight, knowing fully well that Iran wouldn’t be crazy enough to do that; knowing fully well the odds stacked against it-militarily, economically and politically.
The US contends that its military preparations are a response to their intelligence gathering. But, according to Chris Murphy, a Democratic senator, “I’ve read the intel too. And let me be clear: that’s not what the intel says.”
Why is it then that Trump is going on the warpath? The simple answer is that Iran is refusing to dovetail into US’ Middle Eastern strategy. Which is that it wants to be an independent regional actor with its goals like its support of the Syrian regime, its connection with the Hezbollah, Houthis in Yemen and its support of the Palestinian cause and antipathy to Israel.
Iran’s regional capabilities, though, are limited, but the Trump administration tends to magnify it all to justify its military build up in the Gulf, not to speak of the economic blockade of Iran.
Which doesn’t mean that the US is going to attack Iran, though it can all happen through misunderstanding and miscalculation in the midst of such heightened tensions. The US’ high pitched Iranian policy is a combination of seeking to achieve their objectives through projection of military power that looks like the US means business, psychological warfare and economic strangulation. Iran is on notice that it has nowhere else to go as it is besieged in all sorts of ways.
Trump prides himself as an unconventional leader with a mission to make the US great again. He claims that the US is in such bad shape, all due to the bad policies of his predecessors, with Barack Obama as his particular target.
He tends to exaggerate his country’s problems to make his task look so much harder but no less urgent. And one important failing he attributes to previous administrations is that they were so predictable.
Speaking before a gathering of Washington elites at the Mayflower hotel during his presidential bid, he said that, ” We must as a nation be more unpredictable. We are totally predictable. We tell everything. We’re sending troops, we tell them. We’re sending something else, we have a news conference. We have to be unpredictable.” Here is Trump claiming that he is “the only one who knows how to fix it.” And his doctrine of unpredictability is an important component of it.
Iran appears to be an important test case of Trump’s genius. He is not saying the US will attack Iran, but if they threaten and/or attack the US and its allies, they will be destroyed. And it is for the US to interpret what constitutes Iranian threat at any given time.
In other words, Iran is left to deal with Trump’s unpredictability, which, even without any actual attack, is terribly disruptive. At its worst, it can lead to a war with unpredictable consequences.
The writer is a senior journalist and academic based in Sydney, Australia