As 2020 presidential elections in the US draw close, President Trump should be feeling the need to deliver on his promise to disengage from unnecessary wars, particularly from the war in Afghanistan. This will save American lives and leave him more money to spend in America to make it great again, develop infrastructure and create more jobs. This might explain the hectic diplomacy by US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad. Khalilzad has had six rounds of dialogue with the Taliban. He has also obtained assurances of support from Russia and China.
Ironically, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and his two-term predecessor Hamid Karzai, who were both seen as US proxies, are calling Ambassador Khalilzad the US ‘viceroy’ and making strange demands for Taliban and regional countries to meet. For four years, the government in Kabul has been confined to certain parts of the capital. It is now being seen as largely irrelevant and isolated following the Taliban refusal to negotiate with it.
President Ghani recently convened a Consultative Grand Jirga to strengthen his position. Former warlord Rasool Siaf was its president. The jirga decided to nominate more than 3,000 delegates for the forthcoming intra-Afghan dialogue. The talks were suspended last month due to the Taliban’s objection to the long list of Afghan delegates representing the government.
Some of the major players, including former president Hamid Karzai, Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah, and presidential candidate Hanif Atmar remained away from the Grand Jirga. Strangely, President Ashraf Ghani, who has controversially extended his presidential term rather than make way for an interim government to hold elections, has indicated that he expects Pakistan to get Taliban to negotiate with him. At the same time he is seeking guarantees from Taliban, Pakistan and other regional countries that Afghan soil would not be used by terrorists. It would seem that the assurances need indeed to come from his government.
President Ashraf Ghani, who has controversially extended his presidential term rather than make way for an interim government to hold elections, has indicated that he expects Pakistan to get Taliban to negotiate with him
Another demand from the Taliban is an assurance to stop poppy cultivation on Afghan soil. The Afghan government, meanwhile, continues to allow terrorist attacks against Pakistani troops fencing the international border to stop illegal crossings and smuggling.
Ambassador Khalilzad and the Taliban are seen making slow and cautious progress on two out of four main points i.e. cease-fire and a schedule for withdrawal of US forces. This will be followed by a pledge by the Taliban not to host any terrorists on Afghan soil.
Objectively speaking, this appears to be a major development.
While all the regional countries are supporting the process the government in Kabul and its ally, India, are conscious by their negativity. Could it be because India has been happy using Afghan soil for launching hostile proxies into Balochistan and Tribal Areas of Pakistan?
The Taliban have survived for 18 years against all odds. They have been emboldened and reassured by recognition of their stake by the US, China and Russia. Thy might agree to a dialogue with all parties in Afghanistan.
Pakistan has done an enviable job of defeating terrorists of all hues on its soil as a frontline state in the global war against terrorism at a very heavy cost. It needs to remain vigilant against India claiming a stake in Afghanistan based on planned investments and trade. Such a move may be motivated not out of any love of Afghans but for an opportunity to harm Pakistan.
Pakistan, China and Russia are hoping for the best outcomes and the return of pace in Afghanistan. However, if America is forced to abandon Afghanistan with only a partial reconciliation reached with the Taliban, Afghanistan risks being plunged into another chaotic situation.
Therefore, the regional stakeholders need to synergize their efforts for making reconciliation a success by supporting the ongoing peace process and joining heads to figure out a comprehensive reconciliation in Afghanistan. Afghanistan also needs free and fair elections under an interim government and monitored by international observers. US, its allies and all regional stakeholders also need to find a workable solution for socio-economic and security viability of Afghanistan as US and allies draw down their forces. The Taliban are expected to have matured over the two decades. They are expected to show due respect to Afghan women, all ethnic communities, and regional and extra-regional concerns especially with respect to not allowing extremist Al Qaeda and Islamic State to set up their bases in Afghanistan.
The writer is a retired army officer with rich experience in military and intelligence diplomacy