There are not many words in political lexicon that are as imprecise as Brexit. In the 2016 referendum when the British people were asked to choose between remaining in the European Union (EU) or opt out, they voted, by a small margin of 52 per cent for to exit the EU. And those favouring to leave the EU were swayed significantly by the perception that Britain’s membership of the EU had opened floodgates of people from other member countries moving into their country, taking away jobs and somehow lowering that special sense of being British.
Besides, there is a widespread feeling that being in the EU has cost Britain its exercise of sovereignty by having to follow an entire set of EU rules and regulations. Like other EU members, Britain is required to make financial contributions to the EU, which, in the view of those wanting to opt out, might be better spent at home.
These are generally self-serving arguments. As an EU member, Britain has access to a common market of nearly 500 million people, thus enriching its economy. It is a global financial hub and a centre for domestic and foreign investments, because of access to the common market.
Britain’s old Empire complex that the world still revolves around it tends to make it seem larger than life for those wanting to opt out of the EU. Its proponents tend to think that being one of many EU members somehow detracts from the United Kingdom being a global power. And once it is free from the EU yoke, it will be able to create its own new world, with new trade agreements with non-EU countries, like Australia, New Zealand, Canada and so on. The small country will somehow suddenly loom large. There is this colonial warp, which consciously or sub-consciously, tends to overtake a sense of reality.
Among other things, the most contentious issue is the new border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, which under the EU is a common border, with easy access. But with Brexit, Northern Ireland border will become hard as between separate nation states. A solution might be to keep this border soft for some years and its ultimate status to be determined at some later stage. This is the essence of Prime Minister May’s agreement with the EU
However, a negotiated settlement in which Britain might have its cake and eat it too has run into all sorts of problems. Among other things, the most contentious issue is the new border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, which under the EU is a common border, with easy access. But with Brexit, Northern Ireland border will become hard as between separate nation states. A solution might be to keep this border soft for some years and its ultimate status to be determined at some later stage. This is the essence of Prime Minister May’s agreement with the EU.
In other words, Britain might, for all practical purposes, remains an EU member to avail most of the advantages that come from being part of a 500-million common market. Britain will claim to have quit the EU without much adverse effect on its economy.
At home, the May Government has failed to get parliamentary approval for her agreement with the EU. Her own party’s confidence in May’s leadership has been severely dented, with a significant number of her party’s MPs voting against her at the party conference, though she still has the majority support. Therese May seems unlikely to win parliamentary approval for her deal with EU.
Britain faces a tough choice of exiting the EU by end-March, with no Plan B to fall back on. There is some talk of a second referendum, but what if it simply confirmed the result in 2016, with a small majority voting to leave EU. Or else there is the alternative option of a new election, though this might not fit into the scheduled exit date of March 29, 2019. And it does not seem likely that a new government will be able to get a better deal.
In other words, there is no deal available except what Therese May has negotiated. It means that Britain will be in a fair bit of chaos after exiting the EU, with all sorts of shortages and financial confusion about what will take the place of integrated institutional arrangements between it and the EU. The authorities at the highest level, be it the country’s central bank, police chief, the defence secretary, have all warned that a messy situation is in the making urging necessary countermeasures to deal with it. Nobody seems to have any clear idea what might follow after Brexit.
Published in Daily Times, January 29th 2019.