In a recent IRI (International Republican Institute) survey, Mian Nawaz Sharif once again trumps his opposition by clutching the top spot at sixty three percent in the personal popularity ratings. Conducted between September and December of last year, the survey places Imran Khan, the most vocal opposition leader, at the second position. Trailing far behind the Prime Minister, he only attracts thirty-nine percent of the people. Further down the list, the leadership of PPP stands at 32 percent. The PM’s job approval rating surprises his opponents too showing more than 60 percent of the voters think positively about the performance of PML-N in running the federal government, a sign of optimism in the direction of the country.
The supporters of PTI must find these observations shocking. For them, no one can beat their leader in personal popularity ratings and/or professional honesty. So any study that disproves that assertion has to be refuted, maligned and discarded as garbage. On the other hand, the government will boast about it in all the television shows, a role that would have reversed if the results had shown the PTI leader seizing the top spot. Personally, I do not think picking and choosing the surveys based on the results is a good strategy. If you quote one poll that is in your favor, then you are bound to accept the results of the next one too, if it is conducted by a reputable organization like IRI, even when it projects you a distant second. So either you except them all or challenge each one of them.
Irrespective of our personal biases, the survey, in my opinion, highlights certain key aspects of our political climate. First, it shows that PML-N has maintained a good reputation among people even after four years in the government, a daunting task especially in the presence of an irresponsible, immature and many times hostile media. Keep in mind, its job gets more difficult when the party is represented by the most uncouth and rude supporters like Talal Chaudhry, Abid Sher Ali and Danial Aziz who damage the reputation of the party every time they come in front of the camera. Some of them are so vile and obnoxious that people shut off their television sets or switch the channel even before these representatives have uttered a single word.
Second, it also tells me what is going to happen in the next elections; how are people going to vote and on what grounds they will choose their next representatives. I see that PMLN will either secure the same number of seats as it did in 2013 polls or gain a few more. Meanwhile, all it needs to do is to avoid a major catastrophe or a disastrous scandal. With major catastrophe, I must here clarify that I do not mean a natural calamity or an enemy attack since neither of them can be controlled by the civilian administration, instead, I mean a dispute with the armed forces like that of 1999 that resulted in the total collapse of the system or a disagreement like that of 2014 that ended up in the form of a four month long sit-in in Islamabad.
Now let us divert our attention towards the opposition. As the anti-incumbency factor tries to pull down the ratings of the government-any government-it, at the same time, provides an opportunity to the opposition to boost its popularity. What it needs to do is to stay vigilant and point out the mistakes of the administration without making it a personal vendetta, an easy task if done with patience and wisdom. That makes it one of the most rewarding jobs in the world which gets even more rewarding when the treasury is represented by people like Talal Chaudhry and Danial Aziz as I mentioned earlier. At least that’s what I believed but the current data tells us a different story. Here, Imran’s personal popularity, a sense of pride for him and his supporters, instead of climbing up has dipped down. Last year, it stood at 49 percent compared to the 39 percent now. On top, the gap between him and Nawaz Sharif has grown wider as well, a disappointing sign.
The question for all of us is why. What has he done, or not done, that is turning people away from him? Simply put, PML-N’s top leadership act decently most of the times and avoid passing nasty comments while leaving the ‘dirty work’ for the second tier representatives. They understand that colloquial and substandard language can improve the television ratings but it will not help in attracting voters. The PTI leader of course misses this distinction. In the hope that it will turn voters in his favor, Mr Khan himself becomes the Talal Chaudhry of PTI on television. Every day, he comes in front of the camera and calls his political rivals absurd names, passes horrendous judgments and hurl baseless accusations at them. He has done that for almost a decade. After a brief period of excitement, it seems that people in general have gone bored with these tactics, bringing its closet life to an end. Don’t agree? You could see that fatigue both in the media and his supporters during the four month long sit-in. With a little more clarity, you see it during the panama gate hearings in the Supreme Court and leaving all the doubts behind, you can see it in the IRI survey.
The writer is a US-based freelance columnist. He tweets at @KaamranHashmi and can be reached at [email protected]