Pakistan is in a state of political turmoil. So, too is Afghanistan. The US’ unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between eight governments, may not have created a turmoil there, but Iran too is not very well placed. India seemed to be the only country in our neighbourhood doing well; but, is it?
In 2000, I visited India for the first time in my life. My first visits were to Delhi and Pune. Since I was then President Islamabad Policy Research Institute, and my principal purpose was the initiation of a dialogue on ‘Nuclear Restraint and Risk Reduction’ with Gen Raghavan’s Delhi Policy Group, the first-ever consideration of ‘accidental’ destruction between two nuclear-armed neighbours, that had priority.
But I also contacted all institutions in Delhi that I could and expressed my willingness to talk to them all. I offered a variety of provocative subjects for them to choose from. Since this was in the aftermath of Kargil and Musharraf’s ‘counter-coup’, everybody was keen to take on a former Pakistani soldier.
I expected to be met with hostility and suspicion, and I wasn’t disappointed. I cannot claim to have done well there, but I did enjoy the challenge and the constant pressure.
I was invited to Pune for an overnight event at the university by a professor of International Relations, whom I met overseas. However, Pune is essentially a military cantonment with a huge collection of serving and retired military officers. Talking to students was, as always, an undiluted pleasure because even the hostility was inquisitive. The gathering of soldiers, serving and retired, was also an enjoyable challenge again.
Modi has wasted much of his popularity, and while he might scrape enough seats in the next elections to have the first shot at forming a government, he might be politically far weaker than now
Later the same year, I was invited to a Track II conference in Chennai, which I knew of as Madras. Thus far, my experience of India was, as expected, hostile and suspicious. Chennai was to be a surprisingly pleasant experience. I was received by a very pleasant young man at the airport. When he learnt it was my first visit, he inquired if I would like a small tour on my way to the Taj Mahal, the hotel we were to stay. He was thrilled at my eagerness.
The first thing I noticed was the hordes of two-wheelers; they swamped the traffic but in a very orderly manner. All ages, both sexes, all kinds of two-wheelers, many loaded with goods/books. An amazing sight. I learned why Chennai was known as the ‘city of two-wheelers’.
I was shown around the bazaar, the centre of the IT industry, due to which Chennai was the hub of India’s “silicon valley”. I also learnt that it was among the largest ‘city economies’ of the country, host to the largest number of tourists; I discovered for myself how warm-hearted its peoples were. It took a couple of days for me to believe in what I felt the first day: Pakistanis were genuinely welcome in South India.
The first evening was a pleasant one, and I was still adjusting to the feeling of being welcome. The next morning was a pleasant discussion, and I was beginning to feel comfortable. At the convivial dinner that evening, one of my hosts who had imbibed a tot more than he should have, in the course of a pleasant discussion commented, ‘if there is another partition of India, it will be between the north and south’, or words to that effect.
I almost gawked, but nobody else found that comment as remarkable as me. The Indian friend added that, unlike North India, “we have no animosity towards Pakistan, no desire to quarrel over unimportant issues like Kashmir and, in our opinion, we earn the money that Delhi squanders in useless wars with you. Our interest is economics”. After returning home, I repeated these comments in private to a few friends, but no one took it seriously. In time, I too let it fade in memory.
Like most other analysts, I am aware that Modi has wasted away much of his popularity and while, like the PML-N in Pakistan, he might scrape enough seats in the next elections to have the first shot at forming a government, he too might be politically far weaker than now.
I am conscious that the far larger and more active civil society of India is unhappy with the “saffronising” of India under Modi. I am aware of the uncertainties under which Dalit and Muslim communities of India survive, of the rise in the general discomfort under Modi-BJP; and of the disillusionment with Modi’s economic policies.
Farmers, particularly of Maharashtra, went on strike last year and are on strike again in Mumbai now. Unlike the hooligans led by Imran or ‘Im-the-Dim’ and all others of our political leaders, they are on strike without wreaking destruction or disturbing the peace; but they are unhappy.
Mihir Sharma’s recent ‘India’s own Red-Blue Divide’ dilates on how deep the rot has set between north and south India, repeating the view I heard 18years ago, voiced more vehemently, dilating on causes which have moved from purely economic to demographic as well. So much so that South India fears that if it continues to do nothing, exploitation of future generations might render them incapable of doing anything.
The entire region seems increasingly politically unstable.
The writer is a retired brigadier. He is also former vice president and founder of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)
Published in Daily Times, June 3rd 2018.