Before the Panama Papers case, it seemed as if the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) would secure more seats in the 2018 elections than ever before. This of course, was not acceptable to its opponents. In Pakistan, certain affairs are handled in accordance with unwritten laws. The establishment has, many times, either directly or indirectly interfered with elections. The Asghar Khan case is a clear example of this: the establishment distributed money to politicians to help form the Islamic Democratic Alliance (IDA), which was formed to counter the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). The incidents like this are what, even today, make both the public and politicians wary of the establishment’s involvement in politics.
On July 28, 2017, the Supreme Court (SC) disqualified Nawaz Sharif from holding public office, which also meant that he could not hold office in any political party as per the Constitution. Nevertheless, the PML-N restored Nawaz Sharif as party president yet again, with the help of a constitutional amendment. On February 22, 2018, this new constitutional amendment was declared null and void by the SC. Recently, the SC declared Nawaz Sharif disqualified from taking part in any elections for life.
Simultaneously, the National Accountability Bureau (NAB)began to tighten its grip on the Punjab government. Bureaucrats close to the Chief Minister were being summoned to hearings. During this time, many members of the PML-N demonstrated perseverance by refusing to leave their leader’s side. Over the course of time, the number of cases in the superior courts increased as did the number of hearings faced by the leadership of the ruling party and its ministers. Other factors also delivered severe blows to the weakening PML-N government. A federal minister was even forced to relinquish his office due to the Faizabad sit-in started by Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan (TLP).
According to one school of thought, all of these actions are part of a well-thought-out conspiracy which aims to demoralise the leadership of the PML-N. In December, Balochistan’s ruling party Chief Minister (CM) was forced to resign while a member of a five-member party in the Balochistan Assembly became the new CM. This monumental development surprisingly did not attract coverage from Pakistan’s mainstream media, nor did the effort that was made to unravel the causes behind this event. There was nothing organic about an unknown Balochistan senator receiving support from mainstream popular parties such as the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)and the PPP. Some believe that money played a key factor here, whereas others maintain that predominant forces played their role. Perhaps it was both.
The people of South Punjab seem to be extremely disappointed with the ruling party, leaving the majority in favour of forming a separate province
Just before Nawaz Sharif’s lifetime disqualification, the PML-N suffered a severe blow in South Punjab. Eight members of the national and provincial assemblies from South Punjab united against their own party to form an alliance they named the Southern Punjab Front (SPF). South Punjab is a deprived geographical pocket where the allocation of development funds is minute compared to that of Punjab as a whole. South Punjab depends primarily on agriculture, a sector which the provincial and federal governments have ignored. Sugarcane farmers have had to hopelessly burn their crops. The government fixed a price of 180 rupees per maund (40 kg), but the crop was not procured even for this price. Cotton farmers have also had to face financial crises as they were not able to receive the proper price for their crop. For these and many other reasons, the people of South Punjab seem to be extremely disappointed with the ruling party, leaving the majority in favour of forming a separate province. The PPP, Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-F (JUI-F) have incorporated the formation of a separate province in their manifestos. This has not been seen in the manifestos of either the PMN-N or the PTI, which makes them less lucrative parties for South Punjab politicians.
The members of the SPF belong to influential families of South Punjab and therefore can secure independent seats without affiliating themselves with any party. However, as in any election in Pakistan, even the strongest candidates need endorsement, if not support, from the predominant forces as well as a popular slogan and favourable media. All of these factors join together to create a bandwagon effect, not only swaying the voters but also making the results of election, if tampered with, more believable. The newly formedSPF seems to have all these ingredients at hand, after getting rid of the pro-PML-N section of the electronic media.
The likely scenario in the post-general elections seems to be leading to a weak simple majority government or a strong opposition to the PML-N in Punjab, with a coalition government consisting of at least four political parties in the centre. Amending the 18th Amendment to allow for the reversal of devolution of power granted to provinces through the 18th amendment along with the revival of the Concurrent List is on the table again, allegedly, as per the desires of the predominant forces. This will strengthen the centre while weakening the provinces. In the presence of a constitutional bar on floor crossing, especially in the coalition government scenario, the independent members of the National Assembly will become extremely valuable political commodities. The power of federal ministers will be restored to pre18thAmendmentlevels. In light of this likely post-general election scenario, the move by the SPF members can be clearly understood.
The writer hosts a current affairs talk show on PTV News. Follow him on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/syedzishanhyder
Published in Daily Times, April 28th 2018.