When I read the news that more Pakistani troops were headed for Saudi Arabia (KSA), I must admit, I was extremely disappointed. To add insult to injury — the announcement was made by a military spokesman.I had long hoped that Pakistan would reconsider its foreign policy; unfortunately, this move indicates that nothing of the sort has happened.
The fact that the decision to send troops to KSA was made without a debate in parliament does not bode well for the country either. Furthermore, there had already been a debate on this issue in parliament that had resulted in a unanimous rejection of an earlier plea to send troops to help out the Saudis.
Today Pakistan finds itself at another critical juncture. We are seen to have committed ourselves to a country which is engaged in a regional cold war. The powers that be are not unaware of this, hence I am certain that the decision was thoroughly deliberated, yet this choice is extremely misguided. And those who hold the same view as me are not a small minority.
I am also certain that the announcement was made by the military on the request of the elected government; which without a doubt wanted to avoid uproar in the parliament. This fact has been confirmed by those ‘in the know’. Nonetheless, the decision to have no governmental representation at the press conference was in poor taste.
A couple of days after we found out our troops would be going to KSA, I was asked to analyse the impact of this decision. When I sat down to deliberate, I realized how minute a role the public had in such decisions. Nonetheless, a thoughtful analysis might help make sense of such apparent ‘silliness’.
Firstly, while US influence over us is waning and Pakistan seems firmly aligned with China, closely followed by Russia, we can’t afford to completely discard our relationship with Uncle Sam. At the same time,we cannot rush into the anti-Saudi camp either.
Meanwhile, developments closer to home are also becoming interesting. The US has taken a strong position regarding what it expects from Pakistan. We have responded in kind, and made clear what we expect from the US. We cannot be seen, domestically and internationally, as having buckled under US pressure.
The US is a global power, under serious challenge from China. Without having a victory, however small, under its belt, any US relenting towards puny Pakistan, at a stage when Pakistan seems to have picked up the gauntlet, might be construed as an admission of weakness; something the US can ill afford. So there we are. How can this impasse be broken; one in which Pakistan ‘capitulates’ without being seen to have done so?
If we review the decision to provide additional troops to KSA from that perspective, perhaps we can make some sense out of its.
While US influence over us is waning and Pakistan seems firmly aligned with China, closely followed by Russia, we can’t afford to completely discard our relationship with Uncle Sam. At the same time, we cannot rush into the anti-Saudi camp either
The army chief’s visit to Tehran last November raised a lot of concerns in Washington, Riyadh and their other allies. Could this decision of sending troops to KSA be the invisible capitulation that could get the ball rolling again? I think so.
Within a fortnight of this announcement, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani surprisingly announced that he was willing to negotiate with the Afghan Taliban and Islamabad.Let’s not forget here that Ghani’s approach towards Pakistan has been pendulum-like all along. However, he is firmly in the US camp; a camp-follower, in fact. Has he suddenly found the courage to break free? Or is he initiating the US reconciliatory effort; responding to our invisible capitulation in agreeing to send troops to KSA?
I don’t think Ghani has, in any way, demonstrated his inclination to stand-alone against the US’ wishes. In fact, he has been under pressure to publicize his dependency on US troops in Afghanistan. Consequently, every public decision he has made has been cantered around securing US support. And, in that case, it has to be an indirect effort at US rapprochement with Pakistan.
The confusion about what transpired at the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) meeting was without a doubt, a consequence of the idiocy of our [un]worthy Foreign Minister (FM) who, like the First Daughter, cannot hold his tweets. But I think, that too, is likely to be linked here. If things go along this path, it will be no surprise if the plea seeking emplacement of Pakistan on the Force’s ‘Grey List’ is withdrawn.
If the preceding analysis is correct, tensions should soon ease to a visible extent. If not, perhaps, I have erred 9again). The only problem here is that both, US and Pakistani leaders and administrations, suffer from an acute ‘foot-in-mouth’ disease. Both sides are capable of converting diplomatic victory to an ignominious defeat.
However, a word of warning to those US-lovers who have begun to believe that from hereon, things will improve permanently. Regretfully, that is highly unlikely. Not only are the predominant national interests of US and Pakistan becoming increasingly divergent, they are also coming into conflict with one another in, at least some, matters.
The writer is a retired brigadier. He is also former vice president and founder of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)
Published in Daily Times, March 4th 2018.