The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) on Sunday warned that an active weather system is expected to affect northern Pakistan from July 6 to 10, bringing widespread rain and thunderstorms, increasing river flows and raising the risk of flash floods, urban flooding and landslides in vulnerable areas.
Authority is also clarifying that no large-scale river flooding is currently expected, according to the latest weather and hydrological assessment issued by the National Emergencies Operation Center (NEOC).
The assessment said the prevailing weather conditions are consistent with NEOC’s earlier forecast, reaffirming the accuracy of its advance early warning system.
NEOC said it continues to monitor evolving weather patterns round the clock and is ensuring timely dissemination of hazard information to all relevant federal and provincial authorities.
The report said a weather system would enter northern Pakistan from Monday, triggering rain and thunderstorms over Kashmir, Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Islamabad, the Potohar region and northeastern Punjab.
Between July 7 and 10, intermittent rainfall, including isolated heavy downpours, is expected across the upper catchments of the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej rivers.
Rainfall intensity is likely to increase on July 7 in Islamabad, Potohar, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, northern Punjab and northern Balochistan.
The expected rainfall may lead to a slight increase in inflows into Tarbela and Mangla dams, while river flows in the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej are also projected to rise modestly during the forecast period.
Despite the anticipated increase in water levels, NDMA said there is no threat of large-scale river flooding under the current hydrological outlook.
However, it cautioned that localized flash flooding could occur in hill torrents and small seasonal streams, particularly in vulnerable upper catchments.Heavy rainfall may also trigger urban flooding and inundate low-lying areas. The authority further warned of possible landslides and mudslides in the mountainous regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir due to persistent rainfall.
NDMA has directed all relevant departments and emergency response agencies to remain on high alert and ensure preparedness for any developing situation. The authority also urged the public to follow official weather advisories, travel guidance and emergency alerts, and to use the Pak NDMA Disaster Alert Mobile App for real-time weather updates, risk information and safety guidance.