The State Bank has done what many political speeches have failed to do. The warning is as stark as it could be. Climatic disasters in Pakistan are said to have been higher than both global and regional averages in 2000-24, as well as in the preceding two decades. The Bank’s half-yearly economic report also noted that Pakistan was the 15th most affected country from climatic events between 1995 and 2024.
Climate disasters cost Pakistan $29.3 billion between 1992 and 2021. The 2022 floods alone caused damage of about $28 billion. The World Bank estimates cited by the SBP are harsher still: climate change could cut Pakistan’s GDP by 4.5 per cent to 6.5 per cent by 2050, even in an optimistic scenario. Agriculture and industry, the two sectors that carry food security, exports and employment, could see output fall by up to 17 per cent. One does not need Nostradamus to grasp what that means for an economy already under strain and a population still growing faster than the state can serve it.
Karachi has already touched 44.1°C this month, its highest reading since 2018. The heat is no longer knocking at the door. It is inside the house, ready to burn everything down. World Weather Attribution has found that human-caused climate change has roughly tripled the probability of such an event in Pakistan and India, turning what was once exceptional into a regular reality.
Pakistan is, thus, right to demand climate justice abroad. Loss and damage cannot remain a polished slogan recycled in summit halls. Rich polluters owe finance, technology and serious reform of the lending system that makes vulnerable states borrow to survive disasters they did not cause Pakistan’s climate diplomacy, including recent engagement with Azerbaijan on environmental cooperation, should be treated as a much-needed (if done right) opening to secure early-warning systems, bankable adaptation projects, green technology, cheaper climate finance and technical exchanges on water management, urban resilience and emissions reporting.
There is also work to do at home. No foreign capital can rescue cities that ignore their growing concrete jungle and treat disaster management as a seasonal press conference. The country’s case is morally strong. It will become harder to dismiss when the state proves that every rupee sought in the name of climate resilience can be planned and spent well. *