This month marked the 84th anniversary of Japan’s “dastardly” attack on Pearl Harbour. Only a handful of survivors are left, and very few Americans were alive then. Hence, Pearl Harbour, like past wars and battles, is passing into the distant mists of time.
What is interesting is that a surprising number of visitors to the USS Arizona memorial, in which an admiral, Isaac Kidd, and 1,177 of his shipmates perished, are Japanese. That suggests how much times have changed. Japan is now a close and trusted ally. So is Germany. And American allies in the war are now on opposite sides, China and Russia.
One wonders what conditions will be like eighty-four years from now, in 2104. Not even Hollywood or Netflix could come close in their movies to portraying that future. But let us compare December 1941 and December 2025.
For a start, Franklin Delano Roosevelt was president. FDR was considered the most powerful president at that point, with his New Deal legislation and attempts to pack the Supreme Court. Democrats held 267 out of 435 House seats and 66 out of 96 in the Senate. The war in Europe had consumed FDR, as he used every means to support Great Britain, which stood alone against the Hitlerian juggernaut.
The economy was finally emerging from the Depression. In 2025 dollars, US GDP was about $2.8 trillion, and the debt was about $1.5 to $2.0 trillion. The population was about 133 million, and disparities between rich and poor, measured by the GINI coefficient, were 42. The literacy rate was 96 per cent. Life expectancy was 64, two years after Social Security had come into effect.
Today, no fewer than three-fifths and as many as three-quarters of Americans believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction.
Television was in its infancy. Radio and the movies were in their prime. Aviation was still in its early stages. Jet engines and nuclear weapons had not been invented, and intercontinental travel was limited. Penicillin was rare, as were antibiotics, and chemotherapy had not been invented. Eighty-eight per cent of American families owned cars, and only a handful had passports.
Today, Donald Trump has amassed power far beyond what FDR could have imagined. The Supreme Court seems determined to expand that power too. Congress, however, is only marginally in the hands of Republicans. In the Senate, it is 53-47, with two Independents caucusing with the Democrats. In the House, the Republicans have a 220-213 majority, with two empty seats.
Instead of regarding Europe as a close ally, the Trump administration has been dismissive, accusing Europeans of becoming “non-European” in demographic content. While FDR passed Lend-Lease to come to Britain’s defence, Trump now wants Europe to assume a far greater burden in protecting its national security and aiding war-torn Ukraine. US focus has shifted to the Indo-Pacific region, and China has been designated, if not the “pacing” threat, then certainly the top US defence priority. Not only were jet engines in service, but rockets also blasted into deep space, serving as one means of delivering thermonuclear weapons against an enemy.
In 2025, the US GDP was $29 trillion, and its national debt was approaching $40 trillion. The population had almost tripled to 340 million. Life expectancy was over 78 years, sixteen years after Social Security payments could be received. But literacy had collapsed to about 79 per cent.
Medical procedures deemed miraculous in 1941, such as treatments for cancer and transplants of vital organs, were routine in 2025. Ninety-one per cent of Americans owned cars, and the GINI coefficient remained about the same for disparities between rich and poor.
As for public mood, most Americans had not yet recovered from a decade of Depression. The world scene was also grim. The Spanish Civil War had ended. Hitler had occupied Europe. And Americans were divided about being drawn into a second World War. Pearl Harbour changed that.
American anger at the surprise attack unified the nation. The military expanded from several hundred thousand to eleven million. Defence production brought women into the workforce. The fact is that Pearl Harbour rejuvenated America and Americans.
Today, no fewer than three-fifths and as many as three-quarters of Americans believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction. Government credibility is nonexistent. Politics has become, by any measure, nastily uncivil and perhaps never so divided since the Civil War.ax
The question is what dramatic event, if any, could have the same chastening effect as Pearl Harbour. Answering that question may be impossible. Extending the changes from 1941 to 2025 through to 2104 does not present a happy picture. Perhaps Hollywood can do better.
The writer is a senior advisor at Washington, DC’s Atlantic Council and a published author. He can be reached on Twitter @harlankullman.