The IMF projected Pakistan’s GDP could reach Rs193,630 billion by 2030, but exports may fall short at $46 billion. Imports are set to rise to $82.81 billion, while fiscal challenges persist, including a widening budget deficit and slower tax growth.
Exports are estimated at $36.46 billion next year, rising to $40 billion in 2028 and $43 billion in 2029. GDP growth is projected at Rs68,000 billion cumulatively from 2026–2030, though this year’s GDP target of Rs129,517 billion is unlikely to be met.
Read more: ADB upgrades growth outlook for Pakistan in FY2025-2026
Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio is projected at 11.2% next year, declining slightly to 11.1% by 2030, below the 13–15% goal. FBR collections will rise to Rs21,500 billion by 2030. The budget deficit may shrink from 5.1% of GDP to 3.1%, requiring Rs28,000 billion in financing.
Public debt could reach Rs117,441 billion by 2030, though the debt-to-GDP ratio may fall to 60.7%. Interest payments will rise to Rs9,380 billion by 2030, adding fiscal pressure. Analysts warn rising imports and slower exports may worsen the trade gap.
Read more: ADB raises Pakistan’s growth forecast for 2025, 2026
IMF forecasts show a $13.79 billion export shortfall versus government targets. The report urges stronger fiscal reforms, higher revenue, and trade deficit management to ensure sustainable growth.