Ukraine would give up a swathe of eastern territory to Russia and slash the size of its army under a sweeping 28-point peace plan backed by US President Donald Trump, according to a draft obtained by AFP.
Kyiv would also pledge never to join NATO, and would not get the Western peacekeepers they have called for, although European warplanes would be stationed in Poland to protect Ukraine.
A US official told AFP the draft plan includes a powerful security guarantee for Kyiv, modeled on NATO rules, which would commit the US and European allies to respond to any attack on Ukraine.
Russia would meanwhile be readmitted to the G8 group of nations and be rewarded with sanctions relief under the plan, which US officials said was still a “working document.”
The proposal involves major concessions by Kyiv, which has previously refused to cede any land, while appearing to meet many of Moscow’s maximalist demands following its 2022 invasion.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he expected to discuss the plan with Trump “in coming days.” He said any deal must bring a “dignified peace” that respected Kyiv’s sovereignty.
The White House denied reports it had cooked up the proposal with Moscow, saying envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio had been “quietly” working with both sides for the past month.
“The president supports this plan. It’s a good plan for both Russia and Ukraine,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters.
Trump himself would preside over a “peace council” to oversee the ceasefire, similar to the one proposed for the Gaza truce between Israel and Hamas, according to the plan.
Key parts of the proposal correspond to Moscow’s previous demands and cross Ukraine’s red lines.
These include that Ukraine would withdraw from the Lugansk and Donetsk regions, the frontline industrial belt known collectively as the Donbas that Ukraine still partly holds.
The two regions and Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, “will be recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States,” while a demilitarized zone would be created in the Donbas.
The war-torn southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — which Russia falsely claims to have annexed — will be “frozen along the line of contact,” it said.
Russia’s army occupies around a fifth of Ukraine — much of it ravaged by years of fighting.
Ukraine had been hoping for European-led peacekeepers but Russia’s refusal to accept any such force also wins out in the plan.
NATO would agree not to station troops in Ukraine, while the country would be barred from joining NATO by both its own constitution and the alliance’s statutes.
Kyiv meanwhile would reduce its army by a little less than half, to 600,000 personnel.
In return, Ukraine would receive “reliable security guarantees,” the plan says without specifying, but “European fighter jets” would be stationed in neighboring Poland.
Ukraine would also have to hold elections in 100 days — a further Russian demand and one echoed by Trump, who called Zelensky a “dictator without elections” earlier this year.
Amid a spiralling corruption scandal in Ukraine that has claimed the jobs of two ministers, Kyiv had meanwhile removed language about an audit of foreign aid and replaced it with a call for a “full amnesty,” a senior US official told AFP.
Under the proposal, Russia would be “reintegrated into the global economy” and be allowed back into the G8, from which it was expelled in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea.
Sanctions would snap back if it invades Ukraine again.
Yet Russia meanwhile faces few military restrictions under the plan, which says only that “it is expected that Russia will not invade neighboring countries.”
The contents of the proposal plan have fuelled suggestions that Moscow was involved in drafting it.
“It seems that the Russians proposed this to the Americans, they accepted it,” a senior Ukrainian source told AFP.
But US officials insisted all sides were involved. Zelensky also met a Pentagon delegation headed by US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll in Kyiv on Thursday.
The timing has also raised questions, coming as the corruption row rattles Zelensky and Russia pushes forward with its grinding offensive.
On the ground, Russia claimed Thursday to have recaptured the key city of Kupiansk in eastern Ukraine — which Kyiv denied — as Putin visited an army command post to speak with officers.
A Russian strike on the city of Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine on Thursday killed five people and wounded three others, emergency services said.
Since returning to the White House, Trump’s position on the Ukraine war has shifted dramatically back and forth.
He rowed with Zelensky in the Oval Office in February but has also shown increasing frustration with Putin after a summit in Alaska produced no results.